The 2023 XFL postseason begins on Saturday with the South Division leading Houston Roughnecks hosting the neighboring Arlington Renegades at TDECU Stadium,
The last time the Renegades traveled to TDECU Stadium they suffered a hard-fought 23-14 loss to Houston in XFL Week 2. A similar outcome was to be had when Arlington hosted the Roughnecks in a matchup last week, but many would point out that was a meaningless game where the two teams had already locked in their post-season fate.
What should we look for?
The Arlington Renegades suffered a 25-9 loss to the Houston Roughnecks in the XFL regular season finale on Sunday at Choctaw Stadium. The outcome had no impact on Arlington nor Houston’s postseason positioning as both teams knew entering the game that they would be facing off for a third time this season in the XFL South Division Championship Game this coming week.
All nine of Arlington’s points came from a trio of 1st-half field goals by kicker Taylor Russolino, to tie for his most in a game this season. Renegades quarterback Luis Perez threw for a respectable 205 yards on 22-of-36 attempts to seven different receivers who each had at least two catches, led by five for 47 yards from RB Brian Herrien. Perez continues to show progress with his new team, and a breakout performance may be in the cards. If so, this would be the game for this to happen.
Other than playing just last week, these two teams are very familiar with each other as they share the same team hotel at the XFL Hub in Arlington.
The Arlington ground game has been struggling throughout the season, with the Renegades at the bottom of the league with a lowly 3.3-yards per carry average. Although veteran running back De’Veon Smith sat out to heal nagging injuries in week ten, he has managed to find the end zone five times in his last three games. The former Michigan Wolverine ended the regular season fourth in the league in rushing yards, just ahead of the Roughnecks’ Max Borghi who was fifth with 37 fewer attempts. However, Borghi averaged almost a full yard more per carry than Smith (4.0-3.2).
For Houston, it’s not how often they run, it’s when they run. In Houston’s run-and-shoot offense they love to pass, but doing so sets up for bigger runs. A running back in this system gets fewer attempts but more yards, something that may become very apparent now that the Roughnecks have entered the playoffs.
Since the start of the season, Houston’s quarterback Brandon Silvers has waned in his effectiveness, but the offensive weapons surrounding his game remain. A favorite receiver Cedric Byrd finished seventh in the league with 38 receptions remained consistent and healthy throughout the season. Byrd’s only touchdown this season was against the Renegades in Week 2. Since then he has been a stalwart for the Roughnecks, never having fewer than two catches in a game.
On Arlington’s side of the ball their most reliable receiver has been tight end Sal Cannella, who despite teaming with four different quarterbacks, has racked up 42 receptions, many being valuable 3rd down conversions. In 2023, neither team made their mark with big plays from its receivers, and only San Antonio averaged fewer yards per pass attempt than the these two teams.
Defensively, Houston has a big edge. Tavante Beckett finished second in the league in tackles and local product Emmanuel Ellerbee was right behind him in third. Trent Harris boasts a league high 9.5 sacks plus 12 tackles-for-loss. Defensive back Ajene Harris had five picks on the season, including one against the Renegades in Week 2.
Arlington’s defense has been one of the stronger squads in the XFL 2023 season. Joe Powell nearly matched the league lead in interceptions. Colin Schooler and Willie Taylor, and Donald Payne anchored a strong defensive line. Unfortunately, Payne is done for the year with an ankle injury and the Renegades will have to rely on the talents of Will Clarke and T.J. Barnes to fill in. No team was able to score more than 28 points versus the Renegades this season.
On the season, Arlington’s Taylor Russolino has been 6-for-19 on field goal attempts, while Houston’s Austin Jones was only recently brought in, but has hit all four of his field goal attempts. On punting, the Renegades have an edge with Marquette King averaging 46.5 yards per punt while Houston’s Race Porter putting up lower numbers at 35.9 yards per punt. Porter is ranked last in a league where field position is supremely important.
Conclusion
There’s little question Houston has the superiority in scoring with their 29 touchdowns to Arlington’s 12. Arlington did struggle with three different starting quarterbacks before Luis Perez was brought in. In this game Bob Stoops gets to see whether Perez was the solution he needed to spark his offense.
Including the 2020 season, this will be the fourth time these two teams have met, and the Renegades have never been on the winning side of the scoreboard.
If this game turns out to be a defensive battle, and there are indications it will, taking the under on the 41.5 O/U seems like a good plan. Taking the Roughnecks with a 6.5 point spread may be a less solid bet, but it’s there if you have money to blow.
The biggest incentive for each team to win this game is the winner will advance to the XFL Championship, where they will face the winner of the North Division Championship, featuring D.C. and Seattle. The XFL Championship takes place on Saturday, May 13 at the Alamodome in San Antonio at 7:00 PM CT, on ABC, ESPN+. (Tickets: Ticketmaster & StubHub)
