The Houston Roughnecks and the Arlington Renegades play their last games of the regular season in this South Division matchup. Houston won the last game against Arlington 23-14 in Week 2 of the 2023 season on Feb. 26 at TDECU Stadium.
Houston has confirmed their spot in the South Division Championship game on April 29. By the time this game is played, Arlington may have already punch their postseason ticket with a San Antonio loss versus D.C. on Saturday. However, if San Antonio wins that game, this outing become a must win for Arlington, to ensure their season continues into the playoff round. If an Arlington loss is coupled by a San Antonio win, San Antonio would clinch the postseason spot by virtue of the XFL tiebreaker rules.
What should we look for?
In their last week’s game, the Arlington Renegades overcame a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit before suffering a 28-26 overtime loss
to the XFL-best D.C. Defenders at Audi Field in Washington. The Renegades could have secured a postseason spot with a win, or San Antonio loss, over the weekend. Instead they now see their postseason fate stretch into the final weekend of the XFL regular season.
In the last game, Vegas QB Luis Perez put forth one of the best performances by an XFL quarterback this season, completing 31 of 41 passes for 335 yards with one TD and one INT. In addition, Arlington scored a season-high 26 points while also allowing a season-high 28 points. It marked the first overtime game in Renegades franchise history, and the first time the Renegades utilized the unique 4th-and-15 try instead of an onside kick, which they did successfully on a spectacular throw by QB Luis Perez that setup a game-tying field goal by Taylor Russolino. Unfortunately, they could not prevail in overtime.
Arlington must hope Luis Perez has a similar 300 yard plus game this week against the Roughnecks. However, Houston has the best pass rushers in the XFL, leading the league in sacks with 33. If the Renegades’ pass game flounders it could be a long day on offense. Arlington has managed only five passing touchdowns all year, but the hope is that Perez can change their fortunes going into the playoffs.
On defense, the Renegades’ secondary leads the XFL in interceptions with 12 and they could feast on a Roughnecks offense that tends to commit interceptions, having the second-most in the XFL this season. The Roughnecks also have a ball-hawking secondary, ranked just behind the Renegades with 11 interceptions on the season. Houston’s Ajene Harris leads the league with five interceptions and Sean Davis ranks fourth with three.
For Houston, quarterback Brandon Silvers hasn’t been as sharp as he was at the beginning of the season, but he seems to be able to do enough to win. He has a good receiver corps led by wide receiver Deontay Burnett. The former USC Trojan is tied for the XFL lead with six touchdown receptions.
Both being Texas teams, the Roughnecks and Renegades share more than geography or their team name’s common first initial. They also stay at the same hotel in the Arlington hub.
“It’s not as weird as I thought it would be,” Houston linebacker DeAndre Johnson told XFL.com. “It’s good competition, it keeps our football spirits up. We‘re pros, right? We’re around a bunch of grown men with the same goals in mind. We look out for each other. Except when it’s gametime and we need to win.”
Conclusion
Probably due to the fact this is a must-win game for the Renegades, oddsmakers are giving this game to Arlington with a 1 point spread. If you have money burning a hole in your pocket you might take that bet, but smart money would wait to see if the San Antonio Brahmas win their Saturday game. If they do, this makes this matchup a must win for Arlington, and they’ll have to put on a show. Same goes for the O/U of 42 points. If this turns out to be a must win for Arlington, then the scoring may well be higher.
