XFL Playoff Predictions

The Houston Roughnecks against the Arlington Renegades in a Week 10 game at Choctaw Stadium on April 23rd, 2023 in Arlington, TX. (© Kevin Jairaj/XFL)

We have finally arrived! The XFL Playoffs are here! 4 teams are left standing, and by the end of this weekend, only 2 will remain. The D.C. Defenders. The Houston Roughnecks. The Seattle Sea Dragons. The Arlington Renegades. Those are your final 4. Teams like the St. Louis Battlehawks and the San Antonio Brahmas just missed out. The Vegas Vipers and Orlando Guardians didn’t even come close. It was an exciting season. But now it’s time to find out, who truly is the best team. 2 games. 4 teams. One goal. To make it to the XFL Championship. Let’s take a look at both games, and I will give you my prediction for who I think will be the final 2 teams standing after this weekend.

XFL South Division Championship

  • Arlington Renegades (4-6) @ Houston Roughnecks (7-3)
  • Saturday April 29 6:00pm CT

The Renegades and Roughnecks. One of these 2 teams will be representing the South in the XFL Championship. How did we get here? Well let’s start with the Roughnecks. This was a team, that after the first 4 weeks of the season, it was a pretty mutual consensus that they were the best team in the XFL. And for good reason. They were absolutely dominating everyone in their path. Their offense was lighting up the league. Their defense was a sack machine. Their special teams was putting them in excellent positions. They were unstoppable. But that all changed one Thursday night. Jontre Kirklin, their best player, went down for the season with an injury, and what proceeded was apparently a precursor of things to come. The offense went absolutely cold. The defense was not getting the same pressure. Everything was off. Nothing was going right. And it wouldn’t get any better in the weeks to follow. They would fall to the 3 best teams in the North, in Seattle, D.C., and St. Louis, in that order. And they looked bad while doing it. They were completely outmatched and looked nothing like the team that everyone thought was the favorite to win it all. The Roughnecks are lucky they are in the South, because they would have been towards the bottom of the division in the North. So what about now? Well, they finished with a 3 game winning streak. Beating the Brahmas, the Vipers, and the Renegades, in that order. And each game they got better. They started finding that form again. Little by little they started looking like the team from the first 4 weeks of the season. Brandon Silvers and the offense looked like they had a rhythm, especially once A.J. Smith started to incorporate the running game more. The defense was back to terrorizing quarterbacks. And overall, you could tell that the swagger this team carried was making its way back. Perfect timing too, as they head into the playoffs against their division opponent, the Arlington Renegades.

That’s right, the controversial 4-6 Arlington Renegades, who finished second in the South despite their record. Now when we look at the Renegades, this is a team that has been a quarterback carousel. First it was Drew Plitt. Then Kyle Sloter. Then Drew Plitt again. Til finally they got their QB, via trade, in Luis Perez, who has definitely improved what was a starved offense. Man did this offense STRUGGLE to get into the end zone. It’s not like they are drastically improved with Perez, but they are better none the less. Neither Plitt nor Sloter could generate anything for this offense. But now with Perez, they have been able to move the ball consistently. Get into the end zone more. And finally start putting up some points to be able to compete against the best teams. Their defense has actually been solid all season, but the problem is, they were on the field far too much, because the offense couldn’t generate anything. This team is better than they were, but are they good enough to knock out the Roughnecks in the playoffs?

Prediction: No. They aren’t. And that was on full display in front of their home fans in the final game of the regular season. The Houston Roughnecks are just flat out better than the Renegades, and they will prove that Saturday night, when Wade Phillips’ team beats them for a third time this season, and punch their ticket into the XFL Championship.

XFL North Division Championship

  • Seattle Sea Dragons (7-3) @ D.C. Defenders (9-1)
  • Sunday April 30 2:00pm CT

I can not wait for this game. If their last encounter is anything to go by, this game is fixing to be an exciting shootout with lead changes, comebacks, and exciting plays all around. The offenses alone are elite. Let’s start with the Seattle Sea Dragons, lead by quarterback Ben DiNucci, who has been terrific this season. He lead the league in passing yards, second in passing touchdowns, and was really playing his football down the final stretch of the season. The only problem he had this year was he also lead the league in INTs. His 13 INTs always came at the worst times too, usually late in the game. But towards the end of the season, he started cleaning that up a bit. If he can protect the football, he can lead this team to victory against anybody. Because he’s definitely got the receivers. Whether it’s Josh Gordon, Jahcour Pearson, Blake Jackson, Juwan Green, any one of them can beat you. Add in Ben DiNucci’s legs and this team can beat you any kind of way. The defense has been sneaky good all season too. They haven’t been world beaters, but they are a “bend don’t break” kind of group, and they will make the critical stops when they need to. But I will say they have a tough task ahead of them.

Because the team on the other side is, in my opinion, the best offense in the league. Jordan Ta’amu has emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and definitely established himself as an MVP candidate. Ta’amu has made some incredible throws this season, and he has looked so smooth doing it. His numbers aren’t eye opening, but that’s mainly due to the duel quarterback system D.C. was running in the beginning of the season with D’Eriq King. King has been used less and less in recent weeks, but that has more to do with how incredibly well Ta’amu has been playing. King is still extremely effective when he comes in, using his legs and showing off his arm more and more. Both of these guys are extremely hard to stop, and that’s why nobody this season has. The only way to beat the Defenders is to outscore them. And that’s where the defense comes in. They are a defense that will give up the big play and will allow teams to put up some points. Orlando, St. Louis, Seattle, San Antonio, Arlington, Houston, Vegas, all put up high point totals against this defense. The secret to beating D.C. is to convert on your conversions after touchdowns. D.C. will get in the end zone, but so will their opponent. So it’s going to come down to who converts more on their point after conversions more.

Prediction: So who will be the last team standing in the North? This one is really hard for me, because I really could see this game going either way. But if I had to put all my money on one team, I’m going to go with the D.C. Defenders. For one simple fact. And it has to do more with Seattle. The Sea Dragons turn the ball over more, and that’s what it comes down to for me. If Seattle doesn’t have that costly turnover, I could totally see them taking this game. But I’m not putting my money on it, because I believe DiNucci will have that one costly turnover that will change the game. So I’m going with the D.C. Defenders to come out on top and represent the North in the XFL Championship.