Will the success or failure of the AAF help or hurt the XFL?

The XFL and AAF will be attached at the hip, and compared to one another for as long as they exist, or co-exist.

A spring pro-football league debuts to good fanfare and support from the NFL. Designed as a developmental/feeder system, this league fields teams in non-NFL markets like Birmingham, San Antonio and Orlando. The upstart league opens on network television with NFL announcers and good crowds at some of their opening games. Sound familiar? The last two letters in the league name also match up. Except in this case, I am referring to the debut of the WLAF in 1991, and not the AAF in 2019.

It’s easy to be cynical when it comes to upstart football leagues that are not the NFL, when all of them have failed. That includes the World League of American Football. By no means, do I consider the WLAF, which would eventually become NFL Europe, a failure. The idea was ahead of its time… field pro-football teams in non-NFL markets and try to expand the NFL game globally. Careers were made in that league. American Football has become more popular in Europe since 1991. Like the original XFL, which innovated and changed the way football is broadcasted forever, NFL Europe left a positive mark, despite being a colossal financial failure. The NFL’s money couldn’t save it. The novelty wore off quickly in the States, and the cost of running a football league, even back in 1991, was a losing proposition. The WLAF had a network and cable TV deal, netting them 48 million dollars, which translates to roughly 90 million in 2019.  The league employed the single entity model and was fiscally responsible, but over time, you have to be profitable to run and continue a league. The NFL kept the league afloat and on life support with their deep pockets for as long as it could, before eventually pulling the plug in 2007.

The Alliance of American Football debuted last weekend. The birth of this league is traced back to the brainchild of Vince McMahon and Dick Ebersol. It was the failure and success of the XFL that led Dick’s son Charlie to attempt to try and succeed where McMahon and his father hadn’t.  ESPN’s “This Was The XFL” special, directed by Charlie Ebersol, gave birth to the Alliance and the returning XFL. Vince McMahon announced the relaunch of the XFL, and a few months later Ebersol introduced the AAF. Both parties cited the original XFL’s failings as a driving force, in getting it right this time. The XFL decided not to rush into launch, as they did the first time. The AAF decided to rush to the front of the line and launch only months after announcing. These two leagues are going to be attached at the hip, and compared to one another for as long as they exist, or co-exist.

The AAF’s opening weekend has to be considered a success. Despite some of the uneven and sloppy play, which had to be expected, given the poor original XFL idea of having only a 30-day camp, the AAF proved that there is an appetite for football when the NFL and college seasons have ended. The AAF’s only regular season game on Network TV did fairly well. Much like the original XFL, curiosity helped spike the opening week’s number. The TV ratings world is much different than it was back in 2001. In 2019, drawing a 2.1 national rating on network tv is a positive. That same number matched up with the XFL’s championship game back in April of 2001, when the last Los Angeles pro-football team won the championship, as the LA Xtreme hoisted the league’s trophy. At that time, the XFL was on its deathbed and an afterthought. Having nearly 3-million viewers was considered a failure 18-years ago. In today’s TV landscape, networks are pleased to have that kind of audience.

It’s rather telling that the most critically acclaimed moment for the AAF last Saturday night was a missed roughing the passer penalty. Fans were rejoicing when San Antonio’s Shaan Washington took off quarterback Mike Bercovici’s helmet with a massive hit. Football fans expecting a penalty flag were pleasantly surprised. A mistake turned into a rallying cry of fans praising the league, however the hit was reminiscent of the original XFL and a now dead era where hits like that were commonplace in football. For better or worse, there are many fans of football, who watch and love the game because of the physicality involved. The sport has been neutered to some extent in this regard. Still, player safety is important and the sport still wants to remain applicable to the future generations of kids who decide to play it, and the parents who will allow them to.

It might be fleeting but there’s no denying that at this moment in time. the AAF is on the map. For an upstart league, that’s all you can ask for. You want exposure and you want to be noticed. You want the public to give you a chance, and to follow you. The AAF has succeeded in getting positive attention for their league. A large part of that, has to do with the mainstream sports media, giving them a fair shake. Something other pro-football leagues did not receive in the past. Having the NFL loosely associated with the league helps. The Alliance is not seen as adversarial to the NFL and the NFL’s media partners are welcoming the AAF with open arms. Reports are already out there of the NFL possibly taking a financial stake in the AAF, and the potential of the league expanding into more markets. It’s only week one, but the vibes around the league are positive.

Charlie Ebersol, shown here in a promotional photo for his documentary, “This Was the XFL.”

So where does this leave the XFL? To paraphrase a quote from Charlie Ebersol, during his promotional run up to his league debut, “If we can’t do it, no one else will be able to.”  Initially seen as an egotistical dig at the XFL and any other leagues that attempt to follow, the bold statement has some truth to it. The argument can be made that if the AAF succeeds in proving that there is a market for spring pro-football, that it will become fertile ground for all the leagues that attempt to follow. For a very long time now, any non-NFL league was brushed aside, dismissed and ignored completely. The AAF succeeding in what was deemed a “valley of the dead,” would breathe new life into the idea of football in the spring or summer. If the AAF fails, it will appear that there is no market place for any pro football that isn’t the NFL. Something that has held true for a very long time. Being a minor league isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Everyone loves the idea of them existing, but minor league sports are not treated like major sporting events, and in order to make money. That’s what you need the public to do. They have to treat your league as if it’s important to watch every single week.

Being first to a market, doesn’t necessarily mean that you will be the best in that market.  The Betamax format was on its way to becoming the industry standard until the appearance of JVC’s VHS a year later.  While Betamax was revolutionary, by the time VHS rolled around and produced a better product, it faded away in popularity and eventually became obsolete. The Betamax proved that the public wanted a new and different way to watch movies and tv shows. They opened up the door, then VHS walked in and created a whole new universe.  The AAF can set the market and appear to have it on their own, this will force the XFL to be better than them. The XFL is going to be forced to produce a better product. In terms of the quality of play, the broadcast innovations, the branding/marketing and the overall style of their entire league. The key to a lot of this is money. The financial backing and profitability. The TV rights deal that the XFL announces, will be the first telltale sign. TV money is how you survive and thrive. Leagues have died in the past because the money ran out. You have to be able to draw at the gates and be able to have strong advertisers and sponsorships. The AAF may need NFL money to survive, much like the WLAF/NFL Europe. That’s their end goal to begin with, to become the NFL’s minor league. Like the Gatorade league is for the NBA. The XFL has designs of being what the USFL should have been. A viable pro football sports property in the spring. Both leagues have clear missions.

The only non-NFL league to survive was the American Football League. They merged with the NFL over a half a century ago, and the rest is history. Since then, the graveyards are filled with the head stones of football leagues. There is an ancient Italian proverb that translates in some circles to, “Success has many fathers but failure is an orphan.” Recent history suggests the reverse has held true in upstart football leagues.  Failure has had many fathers and sons. Success hasn’t been born yet in this field, or has it?