Is XFL 3.0 Suffering from The Law of Diminishing Returns?

First it was reported how their opening week attendance was slightly lower that than in 2020, now the television viewership numbers have been released and they seem to tell the same story.

As Greg Parks, XFL writer and reporter, pointed out in a recent podcast episode “When life gives you lemons…”, are we seeing the “Law of Diminishing Returns” taking effect? Of course, Greg was referring to an economic principle that basically states the more you invest in something the less results you might expect to reap. Is this the case with XFL 3.0, being the third incarnation of the league?

For the 2023 XFL, their week one television viewership numbers have been reported as:

  • 18 Feb, Vegas Vipers at Arlington Renegades, ABC, 1.57 million viewers
  • 18 Feb, Orlando Guardians at Houston Roughnecks’, ESPN, FX 1.14 million viewers
  • 19 Feb, St. Louis Battlehawks at San Antonio Brahmas, ABC, 1.57 million viewers
  • 19 Feb, Seattle Sea Dragons at DC Defenders, ESPN, 918,000 viewers

Sports Media Watch posted a table that compared the XFL’s opening week viewership with other Spring football leagues:

Credit Sports Media Watch

Generally the first week’s games in 2023 had about 50% of the viewership from the opening week in 2020, and are not even close to opening weeks of the USFL and AAF, especially when comparing the games that aired on network television.

It should be pointed out how the current XFL viewership numbers do not take into account for viewers on the ESPN+ streaming platform.

Although the numbers appear to be down, there is certainly no reason for XFL ownership to panic. The XFL currently has a robust broadcast package, with plenty of games scheduled for network television.

Historically, the first week’s numbers were always a peak, with viewership dropping as the season continued. What the XFL needs to do is continue to promote the league, build a viewer base, and have viewership solidify from week to week. If they can do this, sponsors will be satisfied and the league will be closer to sustainability.

Current XFL ownership have reiterated they are playing a long game. That being said, the league has time to build viewers.