Crunching the numbers: Inside XFL letter of intent signings

In mid-October, the XFL began announcing players who had signed letters of intent (LOIs) with the league. Although the XFL has never specified what the letters of intent entail, LawDistrict.com defines a letter of intent as “…a sign of a party’s intention to form a binding contract” and is used to “outline the basic formation of an agreement.” Importantly, a letter of intent is non-binding; these LOIs do NOT lock a player into the league until the contract is actually signed. That said, a player signing a LOI is a pretty good indication they’re anticipating joining the league.

The LOIs are currently being used in lieu of contracts. There are a couple of reasons this could be the case. The first has to do with the eventuality of the merger with the USFL, which could lead to a separate type of contract needing to be signed when everything is squared away (though that hasn’t stopped USFL teams from announcing players signing contracts during its offseason).

The second could have to do with something mentioned by XFL Senior Director, Player Administration and Officiating Russ Giglio on an Inside the League Zoom call earlier in the summer. He expected contracts to be tendered to players during the August/September time period, as there was some question as to whether the players would be voting to join a union. That was presented as a hold-up to contracts being offered. Whether or not that was true, we may never know. But clearly contracts have not been worked out, and it’s early December. Then again, the merger may have played a part in delaying that as well (the USFL does have a player union), and that may not have been in the picture at the time of the Zoom.

At this point, 144 letters of intent have been signed by players looking to join the league. Those players have been assigned to teams through several different avenues. In this column, I’ll break down how those LOI signees have been acquired, and how well each team has done in those categories.

Rookie Draft (June 16)

LOI signings by team (each team had ten selections):

Vegas Vipers: 9

San Antonio Brahmas: 8

Seattle Sea Dragons: 8

DC Defenders: 7

Orlando Guardians: 6

St. Louis Battlehawks: 6

Arlington Renegades: 3

Houston Roughnecks: 3

Total: 50 of 80 players (62.5%)

Before digging too deep into this, it’s important to note that there is plenty of time for players to sign with the league. No team or fanbase should panic because of a low number of signings from any particular group so far. And if the merged league doesn’t start until the end of March, that gives even more time for players to sign. The rookie draft has the highest percentage of any category of players to sign LOIs thus far, at over 62%. A couple of teams have their draft classes almost fully wrapped up with the Vipers perhaps surprisingly leading the way. They’re the least likely team to survive the merger given they were already on their way out of Vegas before the leagues began talking, and no new home venue has been announced. If that happens, players assigned to the Vipers (as well as any other team that gets contracted) could possibly go into a dispersal draft, made available to the surviving teams to choose from.

Undrafted Free Agents (announced June 20)

Seattle Sea Dragons: 5 of 7

San Antonio Brahmas: 3 of 3

DC Defenders: 3 of 4

Orlando Guardians: 3 of 7

St. Louis Battlehawks: 2 of 7

Houston Roughnecks: 2 of 8

Arlington Renegades: 0 of 6

Vegas Vipers: 0 of 3

Total: 18 of 45 players (40%)

Undrafted free agents were claimed soon after the Rookie Draft, and were announced four days afterward. Curiously, the champion Arlington Renegades have struggled to bring their rookies aboard. Seattle, San Antonio, and DC have reaped the rewards of the rookie draft and UDFA period more than any other team. There could be a level of luck involved in terms of picking players who are quick to sign with the league, since each individual player’s situation is different. There could also be a level of recruiting going on from the teams themselves, perhaps staying in contact with the players and encouraging them to come aboard.

Rights “Draft” (results published July 28)

San Antonio Brahmas: 8 of 9

Orlando Guardians: 5 of 9

Houston Roughnecks: 4 of 11

Seattle Sea Dragons: 4 of 6

DC Defenders: 3 of 4

Arlington Renegades: 2 of 10

St. Louis Battlehawks: 0 of 1

Vegas Vipers: None selected

Total: 26 of 50 (52%)

There’s still a degree of mystery surrounding what exactly this was – which is why I use the word “draft” in quotation marks. On July 28, the XFL quietly dropped a bunch of rights claims on the transactions section of its website. There was no press release, no formal announcement, but 50 players were selected by teams. The lack of transparency was surprising given the level of names involved, including former NFL first round picks CB Gareon Conley and WR Tavon Austin, former USFL star DE Chris Odom, longtime NFL stalwarts like OL Bobby Hart and RB Darrell Henderson, as well as QB Anthony Gordon, someone spring football fans have pined for over the years (though Gordon reiterated that he was retired from football in a post on social media after the list got out).

Obviously, there was some level of cohesion at the league level surrounding how and when these picks were made, but the XFL has been silent on the matter. Worth noting that the Vipers did not make a claim; Anthony Blevins had been named the head coach earlier in the month and there may have been some coaching and executive movement going on that forced them to sit out this claiming period. Or, they may have just willingly not selected anyone. Because the league has not commented on the matter, we’re left to speculate.

Combine Claims (August 9)

San Antonio Brahmas: 5 of 6

Vegas Vipers: 4 of 4

Orlando Guardians: 2 of 7

Houston Roughnecks: 2 of 2

St. Louis Battlehawks: 1 of 7

DC Defenders: 1 of 1

Arlington Renegades: 0 of 1

Seattle Sea Dragons: None selected

Total: 15 of 28 (53.6%)

Throughout the summer, the XFL held Showcases at various locales across the country. Players who impressed there were then asked to attend an invite-only Combine in Arlington at the end of July. Of the 200 or so athletes invited to the Combine, 28 were claimed by XFL teams. That’s a pretty low percentage, which shows just how high the bar is for talent in the league. In theory, those attending the Combine would seem to be the likeliest to jump at the opportunity to play in the XFL, yet just over 50% have inked LOIs with the league. For all players – not just Combine claimants – there could be a “wait and see” approach in terms of wanting to get a look at how things shake out with the merger before they make a move.

Players Returning From the NFL

St. Louis Battlehawks: 3 of 11

Arlington Renegades: 3 of 7

DC Defenders: 3 of 6

Houston Roughnecks: 2 of 3

San Antonio Brahmas: 0 of 11

Seattle Sea Dragons: 0 of 4

Vegas Vipers: 0 of 4

Orlando Guardians: 0 of 3

Total: 11 of 49 (22.4%)

XFL 2023 players who signed with NFL teams this spring and summer had to be released from their XFL contracts to do so, though that team retained their rights should they choose to return. Of those who signed with NFL teams, 49 of them are now free agents, no longer under contract there. And of those 49, 11 have signed letters of intent to return to the XFL for 2024, reverting back to their 2023 team. Because the LOIs are not binding, those players could still seek NFL opportunities in the meantime. Of all the sections listed herein, this is probably the one in which the players are the highest level, having competed in the XFL in 2023 and having just recently been a part of an NFL team. So, good news for the Battlehawks, Renegades, Roughnecks and Defenders. It’s probably no coincidence that those are also the teams that have cultivated a positive vibe and player culture within the first season of play.

2022 XFL Draftees in the NFL in 2022

Arlington Renegades: 1 

St. Louis Battlehawks: 1

This is an interesting category: The initial XFL Draft was held last November, but players didn’t sign contracts until arriving at training camp in early January. The period in between saw several XFL draftees latch on with NFL teams, preventing them from playing in the XFL in 2023. So, they never signed contracts with the XFL. Now, some of those players are no longer on NFL teams. Their rights revert back to the teams that drafted them in 2022. The Renegades selected CB Delonte Hood in the seventh round of the Defensive Backs Phase. He signed with the Denver Broncos instead, and was with them until being cut at the end of training camp this season. Hood signed his LOI and is expected to compete for time in Arlington’s defensive backfield.

LB Emeke Egbule was a second round pick of the Battlehawks in the Defensive Front Seven Phase. He was signed to the practice squad of the Pittsburgh Steelers a few weeks later. He ended up getting released on May 22, just after the XFL season ended. After a stint in the CFL, Egbule has now signed his LOI with the XFL and could finally be a Battlehawk in 2024.

Other Claims

Orlando Guardians: 7

San Antonio Brahmas: 5

Houston Roughnecks: 4

Seattle Sea Dragons: 4

Arlington Renegades: 1

DC Defenders: None

St. Louis Battlehawks: None

Vegas Vipers: None

Teams have varied in their strategy of claiming players in the off-season. Some teams, like the Guardians, have been very active in turning over their roster. Other teams have claimed few outside of the drafts and other official league acquisition events. While the XFL.com transaction page has been helpful in seeing who has been claimed, not all the claims have been posted. Players have signed LOIs with teams that never officially claimed them. Therefore providing the number of LOI agreements out of the total number of claims would not quite work here because there may be claims made that for whatever reason have not been made public.

Unassigned LOI signing

WR Drew Estrada

Another odd case – Estrada is a second-year receiver out of Baylor who has been on-and-off the roster of the Houston Texans since entering the NFL as an undrafted free agent in 2022. In the October 24 batch of LOI announcements made by XFL Communications, Estrada was classified as having signed an LOI with the XFL but was not claimed by a team; rather, the fine print said that “Player (Estrada) rights will be assigned at a later date.” There are so many questions that raises about Estrada’s case: Why would he be exempt from being claimed? Are there others like him, or is he the only one? If he’s the only one to fall into this category, then why? If not, who are the other players and why haven’t they been made public? As is typical with the XFL’s presentation of player movement, we have many questions, but few answers.

(Update 12/12: I reached out to the XFL regarding Estrada’s status. I was told that Estrada’s rights would be “assigned following the anticipated merger or selected through the draft process.” I was also told that several players signed similar LOIs with the league in the spring. Not recalling any public announcement of players who had signed with the league but had not been assigned in the spring, I followed up asking if those names had been released or if they will be. I have not heard back on that.)

Total LOI signings (as of December 9)

San Antonio Brahmas: 29

Orlando Guardians: 23

Seattle Sea Dragons: 21

DC Defenders: 17

Houston Roughnecks: 17

St. Louis Battlehawks: 13

Vegas Vipers: 13

Arlington Renegades: 10

Total: 144 (including Estrada)

Orlando and San Antonio were in the bottom half of the league in 2023 in terms of results, so it’s no surprise they’ve been the more aggressive teams in adding players to their roster in preparation for 2024. The Brahmas in particular have released 13 players and traded two others in the off-season, despite being able to carry 90 on the roster in these months. Therefore, they have plenty of room to add. Guardians Head Coach Terrell Buckley has not been shy about saying publicly that he needs better players in 2024. If there is a Guardians team next year, perhaps some of these 23 LOI signings will make the squad. Conversely, the Renegades, who won it all, have just 10 players added through letters of intent. They also haven’t lost as many to the NFL as you’d think for a team that finished first, so they may not have as many holes to fill. The Vipers have been behind the eight-ball with a coaching and potential home city change; their low number of 13, despite having the second-worst record in the league, is somewhat understandable.

Hopefully, LOI announcements continue to be made in the lead-up to the official merger announcement. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. Being able to take a look at the players who are making a step toward joining the XFL is a nice respite from the anxiety fans (and, likely, league personnel) feel surrounding the merger during this long waiting period.

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