- Arlington Renegades (4-6) versus D.C. Defenders (9-1)
- Saturday May 13, at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Alamodome, San Antonio
- Tickets: Ticketmaster & StubHub
- Broadcaster: ABC, ESPN+
- Announcers: Tom Hart, Greg McElroy, Cole Cubelic, and Katie George
- Odds: D.C. -6.5, O/U 48 (DraftKings)
With the first complete XFL season since 2001, the only task remaining is to crown a champion. Following the North and South division championship matches that took place just over a week ago, the 4-6 Arlington Renegades are set to take on the 9-1 D.C. Defenders.
These two teams seem like a one-sided matchup with the Renegades being the only team to enter the postseason with a losing record, but still managing to finish second in the South Division. Featuring a defense that has been relatively adept all season, they made the most of their situation and handed the division leading Houston Roughnecks an unexpected playoff loss.
Meanwhile, D.C. had the best record in the XFL, with their only loss coming in a Week 7 loss to the hapless Orlando Guardians. D.C. seems to have rebounded well from that loss as they finished off their season with a winning streak, ending with their domination of the talented Seattle Sea Dragons in the North Division Championship.
What should we expect?
Head coach Bob Stoops’ Arlington squad has been known for their defense, and it was their defense that was key in getting them past Houston and into the big game at the end. Houston had a season-low 11 points in that game, and a similar effort against D.C. would go a long way to seeing Arlington raise the trophy.
However, Houston did not have the offensive weapons that D.C. will bring to the game. Arlington will have its hands full against the rushing attack of league leading running back Abram Smith who racked up 741 yards in 2023, giving the Defenders the league’s best rush total of 1,408 yards.
Surely, this game will feature a matchup of the Defenders running attack with the XFL’s best rushing offense averaging 141 yards per game, and the Renegades run defense, allowing an average of only 72 yards per game.
The Defenders are also fronted by the passing attack of quarterback Jordan Ta’amu, who had 1,894 yards in the regular season, the third-most in the XFL. Combined with the fact he only committed three interceptions in 2023, he is one of the best in taking care of the ball. Ta’amu is definitely no slouch, as he was named offensive player of the year as voted on by coaches and Directors of player personnel throughout the league.
Leading the Renegades will be quarterback Luis Perez, who had the game of his season against the Houston Roughnecks, throwing for 289 yards for three touchdowns and no interceptions. In 2023, Perez has committed seven interceptions, the third-most in the XFL, but it needs to be noted he is coming off a flawless performance against Houston. Perez will need to repeat that performance if he has any chance to kiss the championship trophy.
Coach wise, this is a tossup. Leading the D.C. Defenders is Reggie Barlow, the XFL coach of the year as voted on by XFL coaches and Directors of player personnel. Barlow’s performance as a head coach is easily demonstrated by his team’s 9-1 record. At the Arlington sideline we have Bob Stoops, with years of experience as a head coach, and with sixteen games at the helm of the Renegades has the most experience coaching in the XFL. Both coaches have the wisdom and leadership to lead their team to victory.
Historically, these two teams met very recently in a Week 9 cross-divisional matchup where the Defenders won 29-28 in overtime. The Defenders were dominant, entering the 4th quarter leading 26-9. However, the Renegades scored 17 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to send the game into an overtime where D.C. was lucky to escape with a win. It is noteworthy how Arlington held the DC Defenders to only 50 rushing yards during that game.
Conclusion
If Arlington’s defense comes to play, they will surely be able to pressure the vaunted D.C. offense. The question is whether they can sufficiently stunt the Defenders’ attack.
Why wouldn’t the Renegade’s defense come to play? You can be sure they will, however, for the same reasons, the Defenders’ offense is also preparing to bring all their talent to bear. It may be a Battle Royale, especially if Luis Perez can have another game like he did against the Roughnecks.
With a relatively high over/under of 48 points, consider how both defenses will likely cap scoring making an under bet seem to be a good choice. In addition, if the scoring is low, then look for a close game. Taking Arlington with 6.5 points might be a valid choice.