UFL 2025 and Beyond

[4th&long]

The UFL had a great 2024 year, and that was despite all the hurdles - merger drag, late ticket sales starts, stadium in Houston, less parity than expected, no StL in championship. Viewership up 35% and attendance only slightly down 8%.

Now its on to 2025 and hopefully Beyond.

While the focus on 2025 will be strengthening the 8 existing markets, having a better schedule and improving attendance.   There is also the positive of moving out of Rice stadium and back to TD in Houston.  They need to make a decision on Ford Field and Mich too.

But beyoond 2025 there could be TV net opportunities in 2026.  WB-D is losing (not quite official yet) the NBA and thereby needing sports programming bad.  They are also part of the "VENU" Sports Streaming service to launch in the fall as partnership of Disney/Fox/WB-D.

Could TNT Sports pick up 10-13 games in 2026 when they have no NBA?  Could this be an Expansion trigger?  I think Yes to both.  I see TNT doing as well if not better than ESPN, and if they buy 12 games of 50+5 (assuming expansion to 10 teams and 6 playoff teams) for $35-45mm, it could value the entire league in that $350-500mm range.

I think Expansion is highly driven by filling open time slots - for 2025 it makes sense to stay the course, with 8 teams.  But in 2026 Disney will lose some NBA coverage, and with the 2025 move to Friday nights (and that's TBD how it goes) Fox already takes a date off w/e.  If TNT is highly interested and needs to fill a slot  too- Expansion makes sense by 2 teams (low risk) in 2026.

Benefits to UFL:

- Another valued TV partner that can spread word and promote the UFL now on more channels ie more exposure.
- A paying TV rights deal allows expansion to be a net + to cash flow instead of a drain on (Fox/RBC/Disney+Rk/DG)
- The VENU streaming service will have all UFL games
- The rights deal value will be used to value the rest of the leagues games.
- For TNT it fills a need made possible by NBA going to NBC.


Keep regular season same at 10 games but add a Wild Card week so that top two from each conf make playoffs, Conf winner has bye with 2 weeks to sell tix for conf champiosnhip against WC winner, #2 in Div hosts one of two best of league remaining teams (this means you could have 4 teams in one conf make playoffs).  Since playoffs did better than reg season games on avg - these games are more desirable without being watered down.

I can see this being announced just before or during the 2025 season to pump up interest in UFL.

Something will be new in 2026, you gotta think expansion and more $$ without ownership is high on the table.  UFL topped NHL (on cable) so I can see TNT attracted esp with their NBA loss.

Thoughts?

[4th&long]

>> We are also hearing that the league is planning on keeping the end of March kick-off window. <<

https://uflnewshub.com/ufl/report-outpa ... 9d66acb8b7

Good - it works well in 2024.

[4th&long]

UFL 2025 season Rookie Draft - Mid July per J Larsen



>> James Larsen @JamesLarsenPFN Hearing that the #UFL Rookie Draft will be held in mid-July, per league sources.

The official date & surrounding details are still being finalized. What we do know is that the @USFLShowboats have the first pick in each round, due to their week 10 win.

With all of the talent we've seen in spring ball the last two years through the USFL & XFL College Drafts, excited to see who ends up in the UFL in 2025 through this process.  3:00 PM · Jun 24, 2024  <<

[4th&long]

As mentioned in the IP of the thread, I can see WB-D (TNT) looking to add UFL in 2026.  The addition of MW to me is a sign they are filling the calendar and the options are sub-par or at least sub-top-tier.  Keep an eye on WB-D/TNT and UFL dealing.

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2024/0 ... ment-52196

>> WBD (TNT Sports) has reached a multi-year agreement to carry Mountain West college football games on truTV and Max beginning this coming season, it was announced Monday, marking the first time since TBS carried Big 12 and Pac-12 games in the mid-2000s that the erstwhile Turner Sports networks have aired a regular schedule of college football games.
~
The Mountain West deal is the latest in a flurry by WBD, which is widely expected to lose rights to the NBA once those negotiations are completed. In addition to the deals for the MWC and CFP, WBD has acquired rights to the French Open and Big East basketball just in the two months since its exclusive negotiating window with the NBA expired. Outside of the French Open, which will air exclusively on the TNT Sports networks, WBD is not the lead partner in any of the deals. <<

[thw223]

I really like the thoughts with TNT but I think they need to keep as many of their games as possible on broadcast TV versus cable networks.  Looking back at the TV ratings from 2024 there is a pretty big difference between the two as you would expect.

I would argue they need to target at least 80% of their games going forward to be on broadcast TV.  That is a key factor along with increasing attendance and change how they classify coaches for the league to stay viable and actually be around in five years.

https://www.collegefootballdawgs.com/po ... r-survival



 

[MGB01]

^This.

Need to remember that taking weeks off of NBC for the Olympics and the NHL killed the Arena League's momentum back in 2006.

I'm more interested in TNT being a potential partner for the Mountain Pac or whatever when the current CBS/FOX deals end in two years, but if the ACC explodes before then they'll probably get first dibs. 

[4th&long]

I really like the thoughts with TNT but I think they need to keep as many of their games as possible on broadcast TV versus cable networks.  Looking back at the TV ratings from 2024 there is a pretty big difference between the two as you would expect.

I would argue they need to target at least 80% of their games going forward to be on broadcast TV.  That is a key factor along with increasing attendance and change how they classify coaches for the league to stay viable and actually be around in five years. 

https://www.collegefootballdawgs.com/po ... r-survival









 

TNT would not happen until 2026.

The idea that Cable hurt spring FB is PARTIALLY a misnomer. Yes, FS1, USA and to lesser degree ESPN2/FX hurt TV ratings. 

USA averaged 233k and FS1 294k in 2023. ESPN2 and FX did better but still low at 456k and 426k respectively.

But Look at just ESPN in 2024 - they got 708k average, that was over 10 games. So Cable in 2024 was no where near the drag it was in 2023.
So ESPN was only 142k below average (all games) and that was w/o any playoff games of its own. In contrast ESPN2/FS1 averaged 250k

That means it wasn't just the move to broadcast - it was the move from lower profile cable channels to higher profile ESPN. 

Now I think TNT can get ESPN or sightly better numbers, and if they are willing to pay $30-50mm for 10-12 games, there's more gain by far for the UFL even if it drags on ratings slightly its a net WIN.

Having said that - Agreed broadcast is tops, but with the move to Friday's they should gain back 3 games as standalone vs regionalized and convert the FS1/ESPN2 to broadcast.  Adding 10 new games thru expansion would dilute the % of broadcast but the actual # broadcast could increase by 5.  That increase is likely coming in 2025

[thw223]

I really like the thoughts with TNT but I think they need to keep as many of their games as possible on broadcast TV versus cable networks.  Looking back at the TV ratings from 2024 there is a pretty big difference between the two as you would expect.

I would argue they need to target at least 80% of their games going forward to be on broadcast TV.  That is a key factor along with increasing attendance and change how they classify coaches for the league to stay viable and actually be around in five years. 

https://www.collegefootballdawgs.com/po ... r-survival










 

TNT would not happen until 2026.

The idea that Cable hurt spring FB is PARTIALLY a misnomer. Yes, FS1, USA and to lesser degree ESPN2/FX hurt TV ratings. 

USA averaged 233k and FS1 294k in 2023. ESPN2 and FX did better but still low at 456k and 426k respectively.

But Look at just ESPN in 2024 - they got 708k average, that was over 10 games. So Cable in 2024 was no where near the drag it was in 2023.
So ESPN was only 142k below average (all games) and that was w/o any playoff games of its own. In contrast ESPN2/FS1 averaged 250k

That means it wasn't just the move to broadcast - it was the move from lower profile cable channels to higher profile ESPN. 

Now I think TNT can get ESPN or sightly better numbers, and if they are willing to pay $30-50mm for 10-12 games, there's more gain by far for the UFL even if it drags on ratings slightly its a net WIN.

Having said that - Agreed broadcast is tops, but with the move to Friday's they should gain back 3 games as standalone vs regionalized and convert the FS1/ESPN2 to broadcast.  Adding 10 new games thru expansion would dilute the % of broadcast but the actual # broadcast could increase by 5.  That increase is likely coming in 2025

That’s a fair point to distinguish between the different cable networks as they are not all the same in terms of the audiences they can deliver.

The goal still needs to be have as many games as possible on broadcast TV followed up by the top cable networks whether that is ESPN or TNT.  They need to stay off of the other networks like USA, FS1 or any of the other ESPN channels.  I’m assuming ESPN+ should be included in that grouping as I can’t imagine the ratings would be great there either.

[4th&long]

I really like the thoughts with TNT but I think they need to keep as many of their games as possible on broadcast TV versus cable networks.  Looking back at the TV ratings from 2024 there is a pretty big difference between the two as you would expect.

I would argue they need to target at least 80% of their games going forward to be on broadcast TV.  That is a key factor along with increasing attendance and change how they classify coaches for the league to stay viable and actually be around in five years. 

https://www.collegefootballdawgs.com/po ... r-survival











 

TNT would not happen until 2026.

The idea that Cable hurt spring FB is PARTIALLY a misnomer. Yes, FS1, USA and to lesser degree ESPN2/FX hurt TV ratings. 

USA averaged 233k and FS1 294k in 2023. ESPN2 and FX did better but still low at 456k and 426k respectively.

But Look at just ESPN in 2024 - they got 708k average, that was over 10 games. So Cable in 2024 was no where near the drag it was in 2023.
So ESPN was only 142k below average (all games) and that was w/o any playoff games of its own. In contrast ESPN2/FS1 averaged 250k

That means it wasn't just the move to broadcast - it was the move from lower profile cable channels to higher profile ESPN. 

Now I think TNT can get ESPN or sightly better numbers, and if they are willing to pay $30-50mm for 10-12 games, there's more gain by far for the UFL even if it drags on ratings slightly its a net WIN.

Having said that - Agreed broadcast is tops, but with the move to Friday's they should gain back 3 games as standalone vs regionalized and convert the FS1/ESPN2 to broadcast.  Adding 10 new games thru expansion would dilute the % of broadcast but the actual # broadcast could increase by 5.  That increase is likely coming in 2025

That’s a fair point to distinguish between the different cable networks as they are not all the same in terms of the audiences they can deliver.

The goal still needs to be have as many games as possible on broadcast TV followed up by the top cable networks whether that is ESPN or TNT.  They need to stay off of the other networks like USA, FS1 or any of the other ESPN channels.  I’m assuming ESPN+ should be included in that grouping as I can’t imagine the ratings would be great there either.

Yes broadcast first and top cable second, and 3rd party top cable would require a relatively large right$ fees.

As far as ESPN+, this is more for non-cable/OTA consumers.  All ESPN/ABC games are simulcast on streaming ESPN+ (also on demand with UFL Today show) but also streaming on reg ESPN (but you need a cable subscription for that).

[johnnyangryfuzzball]

Here's the thing with TNT: like USA, it's been hemorrhaging viewers for years now. It relies so much on reruns that it's losing viewership and subscribers at rates even faster than cable as a whole. I have to think that's part of the reason why the NBA is willing to move on from them. The days of them drawing a million viewers to an AAF game were five years ago now. TNT and USA have descended into "zombie" or "ghost" status, those networks you can get for free either over-the-air or online that carry nothing but reruns. (See also MTV and its endless reruns of Ridiculousness.)

ESPN at least is still a sports destination. And FX, as much heat as it took last year, still has a slate of originals (and unlike most other conglomerates, Disney is content hedging itself by making its content available both on cable and on its streaming outlets, where possible).

Not all basic cable is made alike.