Wild Hypothesis Time

[Sykotyk]

Okay, so news of the AAF came out of nowhere for most. And based on some trademark filings, etc, it's clear that the AAF, though maybe discussed for a while, only came into being shortly after the XFL announcement.

Here's the thoughts I have on it.

One, Vince and Ebersol have probably talked about what failed in the XFL over these past 17 years. I'm guessing they've done the 'what if' thing again and again in their minds and when they've encountered each other it's probably come up.

Both probably had plans, somewhere, to do it again and make it work. Neither are the type of men that want to be seen as failures. Yes, the 30-for-30 documentary was probably a bite of a primer to see if there really was interest out there for the XFL (or insert-weird-name-here league). And there was. So, both got the ball rolling and took 'idle banter over drinks' to 'let's really do this'.

Vince announced first. And like it's been known for a long time, the short start up doomed the XFL because getting teams situated into stadium deals, marketing, front office and coaching staffs, player evaluation and scouting, game planning, tryouts, camps, etc. It's just too much for one year. So, Vince went with 2.

But, Ebersol's son, egged on by his father and the people he knows, wanted to do it as well. But, you can't be second once Vince announced. SO, they went with one year. Which is a blistering fast time table for a group that doesn't appear to have near the resources that Vince and the new Alpha Entertainment have.

I scoff at the CBS deal, because even the Arena Football league had a CBS deal. How? Because the CBS Sports Network deal is most likely a 50-50 split after production costs. A win-win for the network and guaranteed carriage for the league. But it will pay peanuts. CBS--the one doing the Super Bowl next year--is airing two games. The season opener the week after the Super Bowl, and the title game. This league will be mired in unwatchable, limited access television and rely heavily on internet fueled delivery.

But will they have the coverage needed to get people watching. The primary mover is that you advertise an upcoming game on network programming in advance. With mostly streaming, it's very few that will be watching network programming. CBS--big company--is not going to be shilling for a CBS Sports Network telecast. When's the last time you saw anything on CBS advertise for CBSSN?

Secondly, the talk of the Super Bowl giving the ability to 'lead in' to the AAF is laughable. The timeslots are with millions. Nobody is going to waste money to either put up a spot or for CBS to donate a spot. Sure, there MAY be talk during the week, but would the NFL ever allow them to discuss a potential 'rival' league during their biggest game? Hell and No.

I think they jumped the gun to be first. I think they know it takes more time than this to start a league. I think they know that just because they've 'talked about it behind closed doors' doesn't mean that there's a specific issue getting 8 teams going in less than 11 months now. They know it. We know it. And you can tell by the internet talk of the new AAF compared to the XFL announcement, the AAF announcement has been received about as well as a 2-for-1 deal on used socks. A bit of eyebrow raising and 'it'll never work'. At least the XFL WAS something previously and you can judge from there.

And those saying they had a 'polished' presentation. They basically stole the best ideas people had been thinking up with the XFL and announced them as 'the rules' without any real chance to test them out. Did they run any scrimmages to see how the rules worked? Etc? Doubtful.

I think what we're seeing is two men (one via his son) wanting to be first to get this new league up and running. And both realize the other is in their way. The big difference is that NBC isn't in the way as before. So, just a thought, but maybe this half-ass push through by the AAF to be first is actually an attempt to team up with Vince. They've got his ideas. They've got some inkling of TV and an internet idea setup. But, they don't have the money that Vince can get.


My thought? They go to Vince. They offer him majority control to 'merge' the leagues, start in 2019 instead of 2020 under the XFL banner, but get to run everything. To be the 'football people' to run things that Vince had talked about hiring. The marketing people (Ebersol et al) that he talked about hiring, etc.

Basically, he gets to 'win' the spring football war before it starts, the AAF gets a nine-figure cash infusion to run things just as they already wanted, and Vince gets to see the XFL 'succeed' on the backs of a group who was basically what Vince promised in the first place (hands off, let the football people and smart executives run the show).

The only difference? If the AAF/XFL succeeds, those that jumped to start the AAF stand to gain a fortune as 'partners' in the league rather than just employees.

[Andibald]

It would be interesting to know the thought process time line for both. It does seem like a lot of the same ideas, so you would have to think they knew of each others ideas.

Did Vince, knowing what AAF was planning, jump ahead with XFL 2.0 announcement? Did AAF, knowing XFL 2.0 was starting in 2020, jump to 2019 to beat Vince? Were they originally going to go together with the URFL? If so, what happened? Lots of questions.

If both leagues continue as planned, I can see a merger down the road (maybe not for 2019). If the AAF starts with 8 teams in 2019 and the XFL has 8 teams in 2020, a merger for 2021 (during the NFL strike/lock out talk?) would give the combined league 16 (or more with expansion) teams.

It sounds like the AAF will start announcing cities/teams in April so that will likely eliminate those cities from the XFL in 2020.

Interesting stuff ahead

[Andibald]

https://medium.com/@mo.galaxy/aaf-xfl-a ... e44159ba25

Although anecdotal, I cannot help but notice that what enthusiasm I see for the AAF -on social media- is all top down and rather anemic. The enthusiasm I see for the XFL is grass roots and massive. The AAF is building a product, the XFL is building a community.

[Andibald]

https://deadspin.com/why-is-charlie-ebe ... 1823959869

Why Is Charlie Ebersol Launching A Direct Rival To His Buddy Vince McMahon's XFL?

The central question, at least as it relates to the AAF founder, was initially posed by former WWE creative team member Court Bauer: What exactly were Charlie Ebersol’s intentions in making the XFL documentary? Was it to examine one of his father’s most maligned creations, or was it to whet the public’s appetites for a “new XFL” and how a revival could be done right? Was what otherwise appeared to be a journalistic endeavor actually something more like a means to an end for the AAF, or was Ebersol’s closeness to the subject matter a convenient elision of his journalistic obligations?

[Andibald]

https://www.reddit.com/r/xfl/comments/8 ... _football/

[Andibald]

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/xfpodcast/ ... aaf-vs-xfl

[Andibald]

Is The Alliance Of American Football (AAF) And XFL One In The Same?
https://www.sp-bx.com/is-the-alliance-o ... -the-same/

[Andibald]

If both leagues continue as planned, I can see a merger down the road (maybe not for 2019). If the AAF starts with 8 teams in 2019 and the XFL has 8 teams in 2020, a merger for 2021 (during the NFL strike/lock out talk?) would give the combined league 16 (or more with expansion) teams.

https://www.reddit.com/r/xfl/comments/8 ... _football/

They're separate leagues but they want to pull an NFL/AFL thing. After a season or two they'll have a "Vince Bowl" or whatever where the XFL champion plays the AaFL champion and a couple years later they merge into one 16 team league with two conferences and suddenly look like a "real" competitor for the NFL.

I like the merger down the road theory but this reddit post takes it a step further. I like it. On one of the podcasts they mentioned the reddit post and thought they could have the "Alliance Conference" and the "Xtreme Conference".

Why do it this way? I think there are 4 different groups of fans to consider. There is the "more football" group that will take any kind of football they can get. The XFL fan base, the non-XFL fan base (USFL or anything but XFL league) and the NFL only group. A merger down the road would bring together 3 of those groups where one league only (XFL or AAF) may only bring in fans of their base and the more football crowd.

This plan also gets us to more cities/regions quicker than one league alone would.