BattleHawks wrote: ↑Sat Apr 06, 2024 12:57 pm
Good points, although this actually is year three for most of these teams.
Schedule wise, it would still be easy to play 10 games 5 home 5 away.
You're not necessarily wrong but half the XFL teams are only on year 2, and nobody in Detroit, Houston, or Memphis were really following the USFL until their teams played at home. With that in mind, Birmingham is the only "true" team playing 3 seasons in a row.
laxtreme56 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 06, 2024 12:51 pm
If teams are dropped then the league is dead. Giving up after one year is going to just give fuel for the skeptics and even the diehards will stop caring. Between Red Bird, Fox, and Disney they have enough money to make this run as long as they want. Every team needs at least 3 years in its market, preferably 5, before making any rash decisions.
Over a decade ago I worked for Sky Blue FC women's soccer team. They averaged under 2k a game. A few weeks ago they opened up to a crowd of 15k, more or less what the Red Bulls play in from it regularly. The investment can pay off, but it's not going to happen overnight
Well Memphis is there because of Fred Smith money, nothing else. Certainly not cause of their history from Reggie and the OGs all the way up to a year of the Oilers. Tampa has to be back, how are you not gonna be in FL?
Michigan's been getting enough of a rep (ironically kicker-mania in the land of Dan Campbell) that, while still not great, they're not as bad. I would have tried to keep going with NOLA though even if it's the Shrine--always better to move up than take the L and scale down.
BattleHawks wrote: ↑Sat Apr 06, 2024 12:42 pm
Far more likely that they drop two teams, especially those low in attendance, tv ratings, and social media engagement.
Bye bye Memphis.
So Memphis should go because Arlington got 5k more fans and SA got 4k more? Neither of these did well. Alot of Teams need to do better.
They over priced Memphis and need to course correct. As long as FedEx founder Smith is on board which was why the team was moved from TB to Memphis in the 1st place.
It's a small TV and population market by far. 1/2 the population of SA and 1/6 that of DFW. To me that's a bigger issue with Memphis.
I was disappointed we didn't at least have 10 teams after the merger, so naturally I'm always excited for expansion. But also agree it shouldn't be rushed and the league needs to strengthen what is already has. If this league fails, I think any future spring league would suffer yet another negative wave of lower overall attendance from product burnout. The Brahmas are already only averaging half the crowd the Commanders were in the AAF.
After so much turnover in spring football the past few years, I think at least two seasons with all eight teams returning in the same market would be beneficial. The league needs to set goals and expectations for each market to be attain over the next two seasons. Would be awesome for St. Louis to average 40K over the course of a season. By next year DC should aim to sell out every home game since they play in the smallest barn. Aim for 20K in San Antonio, 17.5K in Dallas and Houston, 15K in Birmingham, and 12.5K in Michigan and Memphis.
Just need to hope the Battlehawks make it to a championship soon. How long will 40K people watch spring football in St. Louis for a nonwinning team?
However, an eight-team league, especially mostly focused in one part of the country, is not going to keep a wide audience's attention for long. I think a good goal for the league would be to start selling a few of its current teams off by 2026, hopefully one is Memphis to FedEx. Then in 2026, sell two expansion franchises to new owners.
I am OK with Canton because there seems to be a lot of interest there. It can be the UFL's Green Bay. But aim big for the others. The UFL needs representation across the country but should take it slow expanding westward. I'd love to see Omaha in the fold, but we probably wouldn't see two small markets in one expansion round. I think the most realistic choice from a dormant team would be the Philadelphia Stars at the 18.5K-seat Talen Energy Stadium. I think we could see a lot of sellouts like down the road in the DC. I'd think you'd put the Bulldogs in the USFL Conference and the Stars in the XFL Conference (why don't we just call them the USFC and the XFC?) to create regional rivalries for twice-annually meetings with the Panthers and Defenders.
Round 2 of expansion: Omaha (probably shouldn't revive the Nighthawks name though because of St. Louis...) and the Breakers, but in Boston at BC's stadium.
Then prioritize the West when you expand from 12 to 16 teams. Markets like San Diego, Seattle, Portland would be the highest targets. San Jose has multiple options if the stadium situation in Oakland is still a shituation.
They may need to rely on that 1980s USFL nostalgia to increase USFL team attendance. But I suspect that's going to be difficult for them to do due to the merger and the league's new identity.
BattleHawks wrote: ↑Mon Apr 08, 2024 12:25 am
it's not just the attendance,
i saw a social engagement chart which ranked MEM dead last,
and it is also the smallest TV market
face it, they are doomed
Memphis is dead last because it and Birm are very small mkts. That was the strategy pf the USFL - operate in inexpensive cities but the ceilings were lower.
There are 8mm people in the Dallas MSA there are 1.35 million in the Memphis MSA (Metro Stat Area),
AND the smallest Nielsen TV market Memphis, here are the UFL markets rank # is in the USA based on 2023 Nielsen:
.
5
Dallas-Fort Worth
3,041,540
2.46%
7
Houston
2,666,330
2.15%
8
Washington-Hagerstown
2,617,350
2.11%
14
Detroit
1,937,250
1.57%
24
Saint Louis
1,255,160
1.01%
31
San Antonio
1,059,540
0.86%
45
Birmingham-Anniston-Tuscaloosa
766,220
0.62%
52
Memphis
644,360
0.52%
.
Why would Fox - a TV viewership focused ownership group drop TB with 1.67% (#13) to go to memphis? Cost and potential owner in Fedex founder Fred Smith. Memphis was there for the low cost including rent and I'm sure WC etc. With a central HUB in AR some of that is mitigated but not all.
They won't give up on Memphis yet but the local TV affliates and non-affliates plus press need to cover the team and league better or Memphis can suck it.
BattleHawks wrote: ↑Mon Apr 08, 2024 12:22 am
this is the third season in home stadiums for:
STL
DC
ARL
SA
HOU
BHM
which is the vast majority of the league
only MI and MEM are on year two
and it's becoming pretty obvious they won't even get a year three
Those XFL teams played 5 games in 2020 then were on a 3 year hiatus. The league had to start from scratch. San Antonio played 3 home games in 2019 AAF then returned last year in 2023. Nobody besides Birmingham has actually played 3 full, uninterrupted seasons in the same market. If after 3 years returns are still underwhelming, then it may be time for a move. 3 years is the absolute minimum though
