Your predictions for the debut UFL season?

[Coffeeeyes]

Yes, three million is a big ask, but the reason I say that is because I have personally seen an incredible advertising push by the entities and networks connected to this league. I am making a large prediction saying 3 million but if the league is really able to secure the casual fans attention to just turn in, they could get close, the XFL in 2020 got 3.3, AAF in 2019 got 3.25 and USFL 2022 got barely 3, but still 3 million and that was with a similar marketing push to this year's UFL campaign.

A more realistic expectation based on XFL 2023 and USFL 2023 would be closer to 1.5 million, but lets be honest, this league being viable won't happen with a 1.5 million opening weekend. XFL 2023 had pretty entertaining football and outperformed expectations with such a meagre marketing campaign, literally getting by on name alone, but the UFL hasn't got that. The owners of the UFL are pushing hard on network games, they want to make this a thing and I don't doubt Fox's commitment (I do think the Rock, Garcia and RBC would rather not be in a risky asset but they're part owners so I'll deal with it). The UFL needs to be better than XFL 2023 and USFL 2023, it is probably the last chance before another failure closes the book on spring football for another 20 years once again.

The push has been insane, this is opening day weekend, on a national holiday where everyone will be by the TV. I can see what the UFL is doing, they want every year to start on Easter Weekend so that it can become something the casuals can at least watch, and the fanatics can look forward to. It's a perfect alignment, a large-ish market (Arlington) playing a well-known franchise (Birmingham) on a national holiday on a huge network (FOX) at a good time for everyone in every part of the US (1pm ET), with another game right after with another large-ish market (Michigan) playing a well-known franchise (StL) at a good time (4pm ET). If they don't exceed 2 million I genuinely think its time to pack it up. This is the most important day of the year and they can't get even 2 million? A USFL game last season mid-season got over 2 million dude.

[laxtreme56]

That USFL game got 2 million because it had 5x that audience as a lead in with the Kentucky Derby. Same way some show post Superbowl gets 20 million then hovers around 5 million when it's in its normal time slot. 2 million might be doable. Honestly if they drew 1.6 million opening weekend and bottomed out at 1.2 million, that'd be better than opening at 3 million and bottoming out at 900k

[4th&long]

That USFL game got 2 million because it had 5x that audience as a lead in with the Kentucky Derby. Same way some show post Superbowl gets 20 million then hovers around 5 million when it's in its normal time slot. 2 million might be doable. Honestly if they drew 1.6 million opening weekend and bottomed out at 1.2 million, that'd be better than opening at 3 million and bottoming out at 900k

I think your expectations and Coffeeyes may be too much...  Now is 2024 more like 2022 with a True spring start and only 1 league with 4 games a week?  Yes.  But XFL2020 was in LA and NY with 8 teams covering 22% of USA viewers.  UFL is not in either city and is 11.3% of USA viewers, A 50% drop.  And this season is not prompted well as many were expecting, due to merger of course, but they got through that and they are moving forward. 

Also recall that the FOX games are on Easter SATURDAY not SUNDAY.  Sunday has the ESPN games. Plus the 3mm USFL got in 2022 was across 2 networks and a primetime game, these aren't.   Having said that weather will play a part - if its 75 and sunny in large parts of the country - not great, if its rainy on Saturday - people inside will watch more.  And rain will prevent MLB from playing some games too.

I think a realistic target for the full season is 725k low end and 800k higher end.  USFL averaged 1.05 million ins 2022 on network and 747k all games including playoffs.  But 2022 they represented larger markets than 2024 UFL. 
I'm hoping for the best and hoping ESPN puts out alot of coverage on SC and commercials, that Rock promotes at UFL at all his non-UFL events and Fox / RBC stay committed.

[GregParks]

Yes, three million is a big ask, but the reason I say that is because I have personally seen an incredible advertising push by the entities and networks connected to this league.
 

Maybe you're seeing different things than I am, but I'm seeing the advertising largely through TV commercials. Which is fine, but it's also the same tact the USFL took in 2023 and none of their opening weekend games on network TV cracked one million viewers last year. Granted, that was against XFL competition, and yes, ESPN/ABC is maybe a stronger network for advertising than NBC was last year, but I don't think those caveats together get you to three million viewers. I'd love to be wrong about that, but I do think a lot of it is also diminishing returns to fans who've experienced the fatigue of spring football failure (or perceived failure) to this point. 

[GDAWG]

That USFL game got 2 million because it had 5x that audience as a lead in with the Kentucky Derby. Same way some show post Superbowl gets 20 million then hovers around 5 million when it's in its normal time slot. 2 million might be doable. Honestly if they drew 1.6 million opening weekend and bottomed out at 1.2 million, that'd be better than opening at 3 million and bottoming out at 900k

I think your expectations and Coffeeyes may be too much...  Now is 2024 more like 2022 with a True spring start and only 1 league with 4 games a week?  Yes.  But XFL2020 was in LA and NY with 8 teams covering 22% of USA viewers.  UFL is not in either city and is 11.3% of USA viewers, A 50% drop.  And this season is not prompted well as many were expecting, due to merger of course, but they got through that and they are moving forward. 

Also recall that the FOX games are on Easter SATURDAY not SUNDAY.  Sunday has the ESPN games. Plus the 3mm USFL got in 2022 was across 2 networks and a primetime game, these aren't.   Having said that weather will play a part - if its 75 and sunny in large parts of the country - not great, if its rainy on Saturday - people inside will watch more.  And rain will prevent MLB from playing some games too.

I think a realistic target for the full season is 725k low end and 800k higher end.  USFL averaged 1.05 million ins 2022 on network and 747k all games including playoffs.  But 2022 they represented larger markets than 2024 UFL. 
I'm hoping for the best and hoping ESPN puts out alot of coverage on SC and commercials, that Rock promotes at UFL at all his non-UFL events and Fox / RBC stay committed.

He has not done that in his appearances on WWE Smackdown but the Smackdown announce team has.  

[MGB01]

That USFL game got 2 million because it had 5x that audience as a lead in with the Kentucky Derby. Same way some show post Superbowl gets 20 million then hovers around 5 million when it's in its normal time slot. 2 million might be doable. Honestly if they drew 1.6 million opening weekend and bottomed out at 1.2 million, that'd be better than opening at 3 million and bottoming out at 900k

I think your expectations and Coffeeyes may be too much...  Now is 2024 more like 2022 with a True spring start and only 1 league with 4 games a week?  Yes.  But XFL2020 was in LA and NY with 8 teams covering 22% of USA viewers.  UFL is not in either city and is 11.3% of USA viewers, A 50% drop.  And this season is not prompted well as many were expecting, due to merger of course, but they got through that and they are moving forward. 

Also recall that the FOX games are on Easter SATURDAY not SUNDAY.  Sunday has the ESPN games. Plus the 3mm USFL got in 2022 was across 2 networks and a primetime game, these aren't.   Having said that weather will play a part - if its 75 and sunny in large parts of the country - not great, if its rainy on Saturday - people inside will watch more.  And rain will prevent MLB from playing some games too.

I think a realistic target for the full season is 725k low end and 800k higher end.  USFL averaged 1.05 million ins 2022 on network and 747k all games including playoffs.  But 2022 they represented larger markets than 2024 UFL. 
I'm hoping for the best and hoping ESPN puts out alot of coverage on SC and commercials, that Rock promotes at UFL at all his non-UFL events and Fox / RBC stay committed.

He has not done that in his appearances on WWE Smackdown but the Smackdown announce team has.  

Well it's a little tough to do when you've got podcasters hellbent on bringing back 80s style Watts era kayfabe (and if you've seen all these wrestling news sites lately you see what I mean)

Which BTW would have been funnier than hell if ESPN had involved his brother Don in the league, say if the Generals were back and he was doing sideline work on WEPN.

[4th&long]

That USFL game got 2 million because it had 5x that audience as a lead in with the Kentucky Derby. Same way some show post Superbowl gets 20 million then hovers around 5 million when it's in its normal time slot. 2 million might be doable. Honestly if they drew 1.6 million opening weekend and bottomed out at 1.2 million, that'd be better than opening at 3 million and bottoming out at 900k

 

The question is with UFL 2024 be more like USFL 2023 or USFL 2022.  In alot of ways, at least on the surface 2024 looks more like 2022.  Opening Easter weekend, NO competing league FB games, no 8 weeks of spring FB previously played.  Fresh paint (ie new name).

Along with the other benefits of ESPN replacing USA and FS1 for the most part, and ESPN promotion / coverage.

I'm sure all of us on here will be crossing our fingers and praying for good viewership #s


 

[johnnyangryfuzzball]

Yes, three million is a big ask, but the reason I say that is because I have personally seen an incredible advertising push by the entities and networks connected to this league.

 

Maybe you're seeing different things than I am, but I'm seeing the advertising largely through TV commercials. Which is fine, but it's also the same tact the USFL took in 2023 and none of their opening weekend games on network TV cracked one million viewers last year. Granted, that was against XFL competition, and yes, ESPN/ABC is maybe a stronger network for advertising than NBC was last year, but I don't think those caveats together get you to three million viewers. I'd love to be wrong about that, but I do think a lot of it is also diminishing returns to fans who've experienced the fatigue of spring football failure (or perceived failure) to this point. 

I mean, inasmuch as there's a "perceived failure" somebody has pulled off spring football six years in a row now (assuming, probably safely at this point, that the UFL doesn't pull a MLFB/AAFL/UNGL/etc. and suddenly close up shop before the first game). Only the names have changed... and at this point, the teams have been around long enough to start building up fan bases. Plus the XFL has completed a full season and the USFL two full seasons, so we're starting to see more stability, especially now that they've joined forces.

[GregParks]

Yes, three million is a big ask, but the reason I say that is because I have personally seen an incredible advertising push by the entities and networks connected to this league.



 

Maybe you're seeing different things than I am, but I'm seeing the advertising largely through TV commercials. Which is fine, but it's also the same tact the USFL took in 2023 and none of their opening weekend games on network TV cracked one million viewers last year. Granted, that was against XFL competition, and yes, ESPN/ABC is maybe a stronger network for advertising than NBC was last year, but I don't think those caveats together get you to three million viewers. I'd love to be wrong about that, but I do think a lot of it is also diminishing returns to fans who've experienced the fatigue of spring football failure (or perceived failure) to this point. 

I mean, inasmuch as there's a "perceived failure" somebody has pulled off spring football six years in a row now (assuming, probably safely at this point, that the UFL doesn't pull a MLFB/AAFL/UNGL/etc. and suddenly close up shop before the first game). Only the names have changed... and at this point, the teams have been around long enough to start building up fan bases. Plus the XFL has completed a full season and the USFL two full seasons, so we're starting to see more stability, especially now that they've joined forces.

True, but as we all know, perception and reality can be two different things (especially from fans in those cities of teams that were contracted this year). 

[4th&long]

Maybe you're seeing different things than I am, but I'm seeing the advertising largely through TV commercials. Which is fine, but it's also the same tact the USFL took in 2023 and none of their opening weekend games on network TV cracked one million viewers last year. Granted, that was against XFL competition, and yes, ESPN/ABC is maybe a stronger network for advertising than NBC was last year, but I don't think those caveats together get you to three million viewers. I'd love to be wrong about that, but I do think a lot of it is also diminishing returns to fans who've experienced the fatigue of spring football failure (or perceived failure) to this point. 

I mean, inasmuch as there's a "perceived failure" somebody has pulled off spring football six years in a row now (assuming, probably safely at this point, that the UFL doesn't pull a MLFB/AAFL/UNGL/etc. and suddenly close up shop before the first game). Only the names have changed... and at this point, the teams have been around long enough to start building up fan bases. Plus the XFL has completed a full season and the USFL two full seasons, so we're starting to see more stability, especially now that they've joined forces.

True, but as we all know, perception and reality can be two different things (especially from fans in those cities of teams that were contracted this year). 

I think the perception is that the UFL has to be better explained as a continuation of the XFL and USFL.  Meaning that both leagues live on thru the UFL.  ie its not a new league ites a rebranding of two merged leagues.