USFL-XFL merged league teams, size, season speculation

[Firecop]

IF the new league succeeds and IF the league eventually expands, being a “homer” , I would love to see a Seattle / Portland rivalry or even Vancouver. Glad I didn’t renew my Dragons season tix! Too bad about them, Seattle fans would have returned in numbers. eventually.

Merry Christmas or whatever you celebrate to one and all!

[4th&long]

If they had a team in Ohio at least you could go with the regional rivalry that’s built in with Michigan and Ohio St.

Agree with you and GDAWG - Canton, aka the Cleveland Nielsen TV Mkt, would be a good Central/Midwest/close to NE team location with the Canton PFHall stadium. And its relatively low cost state and good from Geography standpoint.

[GDAWG]

IF the new league succeeds and IF the league eventually expands, being a “homer” , I would love to see a Seattle / Portland rivalry or even Vancouver. Glad I didn’t renew my Dragons season tix! Too bad about them, Seattle fans would have returned in numbers. eventually.

Merry Christmas or whatever you celebrate to one and all!

I think Vancouver and other potential Canadian destinations will only work if the merged league has an agreement with the CFL to allow CFL teams to own teams in this merged league, whether it's a minority share of American teams on the US border or their own teams in their own cities. This way, the CFL gets to keep their unique rules without having to be "NFL Canada" while at the same time be involved in four down, 11 man football. An example of this would be if like you have the Hamilton Tiger-Cats or Ottawa Redblacks own a minority share of the Michigan Panthers. In the Pacific Northwest, you can have the BC Lions own a majority (or even a part) of the Vancouver UFL team, but the Calgary Stampeders own a minority of the Portland Team.

To me, this is the only way I see Canadian teams ever in an American spring league: to get the CFL to invest in American teams without ruining what the CFL has built. The CFL is unique in its 12 men, 3 downs, goal posts in front of the endzone, pre-snap motion and the one point rouge. None of that should ever be sacrificed so that they can become "NFL Canada." Instead, should a US based spring league decide to have individual owners and want to expand to Canada, get the CFL teams on board to invest in the teams. That might be harder to do with Saskatchewan, Edmonton and Winnipeg since they are community owned (and might be the reason why this idea won't eventually work in real life).

[4th&long]

Hmmmmm, not much of a professional league without a national presence; looks more regional to me. But what're ya gonna do!

That's the nature of an 8 team league. Throw in 3 teams in one state and its more regional. Grant USXFL is more regional than with USFL or XFL-2023. This is why (along withmkt size) I thought they'd be in NYC area or at least Philly. Its also one reason why I wanted Bandits over Showboats in 2023 - even though i get the reasons why.

XFL 2020 had the biggest TV markets (22% coverage) and a real nice geographic spread. They also had the best TV ratings

XFL 2023 is have the TV markets size at 11.3%.

But is USXFL a regional league or a multi regional league ? I'd say the later and its the regions that matter... Mostly. As I've posted they still need NE and maybe FL.

The league is also going to have to rely on attendance instead of size of TV markets, so they have to also have to choose the right stadiums. Spring football in NYC and Philly can work if you get a stadium with a minimum capacity of 15,000. The size of the TV markets won't matter if there are only 10,000 people in attendance weekly at MetLife or the Linc. There are MLS stadiums in those cities and even though the cities may own the stadiums, MLS teams at Red Bull and Subaru are the primary tenants and will have a say on whether or not they want their fields ruined by American football during their seasons. Same such situation would occur at the new stadium in Queens for New York City FC when that opens. NYCFC will have a say on whether or not they want their field ruined by Spring football at their new stadium. None of those three teams may be as open to hosting spring football as DC United is at Audi Field. The second option would be college stadiums. Franklin Field in Philadelphia might be an option if there are 5 open dates and same goes for Columbia University's Wien Stadium in New York. But Franklin Field has a capacity of 53,000, so 10,000-20,000 fans would look empty.

There is Boston. That could cause bigger problems for spring football than Philly and NYC. While I think Philly and NYC can get at least 10,000 fans to attend their games (assuming they get the right venues), I don't think the same for Boston as I don't think they can get the crowds and there is probably lack of fan interest. There's Alumni Stadium in Boston College that seats 44,000 but they might not be as open to hosting spring football as the University of Houston was with the last two versions of the XFL. If Boston College says no, spring football isn't happening in Boston. There are plans for an MLS stadium in Everett, but that has a long way to go before it's a done deal and those plans could collapse. Boston may not be needed though if this league can get NYC and Philly.

Pittsburgh might be in an even worse situation than Philly, NYC and Boston with regards to venues. The only football stadium is Acrisure, which might be too big and too expensive. The soccer stadium is too small at 5,000 people. The fan support may not even be there for the Maulers.

As for Florida, Tampa might be revisited again if USF is open to hosting Spring football at their on campus stadium. Orlando could be revisited again in the future, whether its at Camping World or somewhere else. UCF might be reluctant to host spring football at their stadium as they were burned by the AAF. Exploria Stadium is an MLS stadium, but again, Orlando City SC will have a say on if they want spring football played on their field. Not sure if Miami is a fit for a spring league but if they are the options should be DRV PNK in Fort Lauderdale (18,000) and FIU Stadium on the campus of Florida International University (20,000).

The league can not rely on attendance to pay the bills or attract investors. Its secondary to a Media rights deal. Remember there are only 5 home games. Will strong local support translate into better local TV rating, media/press coverage, and fan interest - yes. Does Attendance feed off that and help on the revenue side - yes. But it can't replace a strong media rights deal.

AS far as TB or Orlando. Either can work in either legacy "league".

But regardless of cost, not being in NY area is a no no. They need to find a way. Hopefully in 2025. Its clear CA is off limits and NJ/NY are high cost/regs too. But NY/NJ is too big to ignore.

As far as Philly. Going to Leigh or similar that far out is a non-starter. While the city heading in wrong direction and is high cost, outside the city should work. That leaves Subaru stadium. If they truly bail on NY/NJ than they really need to make philly work.

[GDAWG]

If they had a team in Ohio at least you could go with the regional rivalry that’s built in with Michigan and Ohio St.

Agree with you and GDAWG - Canton, aka the Cleveland Nielsen TV Mkt, would be a good Central/Midwest/close to NE team location with the Canton PFHall stadium. And its relatively low cost state and good from Geography standpoint.

Also, other Midwestern cities have their issues. With Chicago, history has indicated that they have never supported spring football and there's no proof that they would support a team in this league either, despite market size. Milwaukee has no football stadiums to support a league like this (which is why they are never mentioned for any of these leagues). Canton in the league would eliminate Columbus, Cincinnati and Cleveland. Indianapolis is much in the same vein as Pittsburgh: the only stadium suitable for spring football is an NFL stadium which is likely very expensive (the only chance Indy has with Spring football is if the soccer team Indy Eleven is open to allowing a spring football team ruin their field in their proposed 20,000 seat stadium). Minnesota would be an intriguing option.

[GDAWG]

That's the nature of an 8 team league. Throw in 3 teams in one state and its more regional. Grant USXFL is more regional than with USFL or XFL-2023. This is why (along withmkt size) I thought they'd be in NYC area or at least Philly. Its also one reason why I wanted Bandits over Showboats in 2023 - even though i get the reasons why.

XFL 2020 had the biggest TV markets (22% coverage) and a real nice geographic spread. They also had the best TV ratings

XFL 2023 is have the TV markets size at 11.3%.

But is USXFL a regional league or a multi regional league ? I'd say the later and its the regions that matter... Mostly. As I've posted they still need NE and maybe FL.

The league is also going to have to rely on attendance instead of size of TV markets, so they have to also have to choose the right stadiums. Spring football in NYC and Philly can work if you get a stadium with a minimum capacity of 15,000. The size of the TV markets won't matter if there are only 10,000 people in attendance weekly at MetLife or the Linc. There are MLS stadiums in those cities and even though the cities may own the stadiums, MLS teams at Red Bull and Subaru are the primary tenants and will have a say on whether or not they want their fields ruined by American football during their seasons. Same such situation would occur at the new stadium in Queens for New York City FC when that opens. NYCFC will have a say on whether or not they want their field ruined by Spring football at their new stadium. None of those three teams may be as open to hosting spring football as DC United is at Audi Field. The second option would be college stadiums. Franklin Field in Philadelphia might be an option if there are 5 open dates and same goes for Columbia University's Wien Stadium in New York. But Franklin Field has a capacity of 53,000, so 10,000-20,000 fans would look empty.

There is Boston. That could cause bigger problems for spring football than Philly and NYC. While I think Philly and NYC can get at least 10,000 fans to attend their games (assuming they get the right venues), I don't think the same for Boston as I don't think they can get the crowds and there is probably lack of fan interest. There's Alumni Stadium in Boston College that seats 44,000 but they might not be as open to hosting spring football as the University of Houston was with the last two versions of the XFL. If Boston College says no, spring football isn't happening in Boston. There are plans for an MLS stadium in Everett, but that has a long way to go before it's a done deal and those plans could collapse. Boston may not be needed though if this league can get NYC and Philly.

Pittsburgh might be in an even worse situation than Philly, NYC and Boston with regards to venues. The only football stadium is Acrisure, which might be too big and too expensive. The soccer stadium is too small at 5,000 people. The fan support may not even be there for the Maulers.

As for Florida, Tampa might be revisited again if USF is open to hosting Spring football at their on campus stadium. Orlando could be revisited again in the future, whether its at Camping World or somewhere else. UCF might be reluctant to host spring football at their stadium as they were burned by the AAF. Exploria Stadium is an MLS stadium, but again, Orlando City SC will have a say on if they want spring football played on their field. Not sure if Miami is a fit for a spring league but if they are the options should be DRV PNK in Fort Lauderdale (18,000) and FIU Stadium on the campus of Florida International University (20,000).

The league can not rely on attendance to pay the bills or attract investors. Its secondary to a Media rights deal. Remember there are only 5 home games. Will strong local support translate into better local TV rating, media/press coverage, and fan interest - yes. Does Attendance feed off that and help on the revenue side - yes. But it can't replace a strong media rights deal.

AS far as TB or Orlando. Either can work in either legacy "league".

But regardless of cost, not being in NY area is a no no. They need to find a way. Hopefully in 2025. Its clear CA is off limits and NJ/NY are high cost/regs too. But NY/NJ is too big to ignore.

As far as Philly. Going to Leigh or similar that far out is a non-starter. While the city heading in wrong direction and is high cost, outside the city should work. That leaves Subaru stadium. If they truly bail on NY/NJ than they really need to make philly work.

I think attendance is more important than TV rights. No network will be interested in a league who always plays in empty stadiums. TV rights will come and be much higher if the product is sustainable, including attendance. I have always thought the optics of 15,000 people in a 20,000 seat stadium is much better visually than 15,000 in an 80,000 seat stadium. Showing 15,000 people in a 20,000 seat stadium for every team shows that this is a league that could have staying power and attract a lot of money, including for TV. Showing 12,000 to 15,000 people in an 80,000 seat stadium is not a good look for the league and won't attract as much money as an attendance of 15,000 in a 20,000 seat stadium. Local press coverage would be more positive if you are able to get an attendance of 15,000 in a 20,000 seat stadium. Otherwise, the local press would refer to the league as a joke and not taken seriously if games are played in near empty stadiums.

[4th&long]

For info/perspective on USXFL locations:

Rank/Market/USA Household %: (* denotes 2024 team)

1 New York 6.24%
2 Los Angeles 4.72%
3 Chicago 2.93%
4 Philadelphia 2.51%
*5 Dallas-Fort Worth 2.46%
6 Atlanta 2.17%
*7 Houston 2.15%
*8 Washington-Hagerstown 2.11%
9 Boston-Manchester 2.10%
10 San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose 2.10%
11 Phoenix-Prescott 1.73%
12 Seattle-Tacoma 1.71%
13 Tampa-St Petersburg-Sarasota 1.67%
*14 Detroit 1.57%
15 Minneapolis-Saint Paul 1.49%
16 Denver 1.45%
17 Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne 1.43%
18 Miami-Fort Lauderdale 1.39%
19 Cleveland-Akron-Canton 1.25%

Other USXFL markets
*24 Saint Louis 1.01%
*31 San Antonio 0.86%
*45 Birmingham-Anniston-Tuscaloosa 0.62%
*52 Memphis 0.52%

That adds up to 11.3%.
Compare that to the XFL 2020 (22.1%) or even USFL 2022 (16.3%). XFL 2023 was closest at 12.44%

[johnnyangryfuzzball]

That's the nature of an 8 team league. Throw in 3 teams in one state and its more regional. Grant USXFL is more regional than with USFL or XFL-2023. This is why (along withmkt size) I thought they'd be in NYC area or at least Philly. Its also one reason why I wanted Bandits over Showboats in 2023 - even though i get the reasons why.

XFL 2020 had the biggest TV markets (22% coverage) and a real nice geographic spread. They also had the best TV ratings

XFL 2023 is have the TV markets size at 11.3%.

But is USXFL a regional league or a multi regional league ? I'd say the later and its the regions that matter... Mostly. As I've posted they still need NE and maybe FL.

The league is also going to have to rely on attendance instead of size of TV markets, so they have to also have to choose the right stadiums. Spring football in NYC and Philly can work if you get a stadium with a minimum capacity of 15,000. The size of the TV markets won't matter if there are only 10,000 people in attendance weekly at MetLife or the Linc. There are MLS stadiums in those cities and even though the cities may own the stadiums, MLS teams at Red Bull and Subaru are the primary tenants and will have a say on whether or not they want their fields ruined by American football during their seasons. Same such situation would occur at the new stadium in Queens for New York City FC when that opens. NYCFC will have a say on whether or not they want their field ruined by Spring football at their new stadium. None of those three teams may be as open to hosting spring football as DC United is at Audi Field. The second option would be college stadiums. Franklin Field in Philadelphia might be an option if there are 5 open dates and same goes for Columbia University's Wien Stadium in New York. But Franklin Field has a capacity of 53,000, so 10,000-20,000 fans would look empty.

There is Boston. That could cause bigger problems for spring football than Philly and NYC. While I think Philly and NYC can get at least 10,000 fans to attend their games (assuming they get the right venues), I don't think the same for Boston as I don't think they can get the crowds and there is probably lack of fan interest. There's Alumni Stadium in Boston College that seats 44,000 but they might not be as open to hosting spring football as the University of Houston was with the last two versions of the XFL. If Boston College says no, spring football isn't happening in Boston. There are plans for an MLS stadium in Everett, but that has a long way to go before it's a done deal and those plans could collapse. Boston may not be needed though if this league can get NYC and Philly.

Pittsburgh might be in an even worse situation than Philly, NYC and Boston with regards to venues. The only football stadium is Acrisure, which might be too big and too expensive. The soccer stadium is too small at 5,000 people. The fan support may not even be there for the Maulers.

As for Florida, Tampa might be revisited again if USF is open to hosting Spring football at their on campus stadium. Orlando could be revisited again in the future, whether its at Camping World or somewhere else. UCF might be reluctant to host spring football at their stadium as they were burned by the AAF. Exploria Stadium is an MLS stadium, but again, Orlando City SC will have a say on if they want spring football played on their field. Not sure if Miami is a fit for a spring league but if they are the options should be DRV PNK in Fort Lauderdale (18,000) and FIU Stadium on the campus of Florida International University (20,000).

The league can not rely on attendance to pay the bills or attract investors. Its secondary to a Media rights deal. Remember there are only 5 home games. Will strong local support translate into better local TV rating, media/press coverage, and fan interest - yes. Does Attendance feed off that and help on the revenue side - yes. But it can't replace a strong media rights deal.

AS far as TB or Orlando. Either can work in either legacy "league".

But regardless of cost, not being in NY area is a no no. They need to find a way. Hopefully in 2025. Its clear CA is off limits and NJ/NY are high cost/regs too. But NY/NJ is too big to ignore.

As far as Philly. Going to Leigh or similar that far out is a non-starter. While the city heading in wrong direction and is high cost, outside the city should work. That leaves Subaru stadium. If they truly bail on NY/NJ than they really need to make philly work.

No alternative football league has yet proven any sort of ability to draw a "strong media rights deal" enough to pay the bills. Every league that has come into existence expecting to be bailed out by the networks has failed.

I will point you to the NHL. The NHL has 32 teams. For the first two decades of the 21st century it was usually 30. ESPN, and especially NBC, were OBSESSED with the same few teams. New York, Philly, Pittsburgh. This was at the expense of the 20+ others, many of which had better records and more exciting product. But NBC owned the Flyers, so it put Flyers-Rangers on multiple times a year. Not surprisingly, ratings went down, down, down, down. People are sick of seeing New York, Philly, etc. on their TVs all the time. NBC did the same thing with arena football. New York, Philly, Dallas, week after week after week, and it got old.

Did the NFL suffer for not having a team in LA for all those years? No, it did not. In fact, for a few years after the Rams came back, ratings went DOWN. It turned out, big city viewers like picking their own favorite teams as much as the rest of the country. So I strongly suggest you back away from your 1980s-mindset obsession with counting media markets down to the 0.1% as if that translates into ratings, because this is (going to be) 2024.

The XFL, in particular, has been a national brand. Its TV product is geared toward a national audience, and quite frankly the evidence for saying "you must have these big, expensive, unattainable markets" for ratings success isn't there. A New York game on TV doesn't outdraw a St. Louis game.

You need BOTH gate revenue and media rights to make a pro sports league work. That's how the NFL succeeds.

[johnnyangryfuzzball]

To elaborate a little further on why market size doesn't matter as much, especially in the context of these leagues:

As I noted, it's a national brand, and a fairly new one. These teams don't have, in general, strong connections to city culture. St. Louis managed to do that quickly because there was a void there to exploit. But especially with the Arlington hub model and the centralized ownership, there isn't much "glue" per se "sticking" a city to any particular team. The USFL tried to achieve that with their heritage brands, and in smaller cities like Birmingham and Memphis, that can work. But in a city the size of New York, with so many other sporting options, they're not going to give two flying whatevers about whether or not there's a team in that city. If they like the XFL, they'll root for a team of their choice... and if they play there, great, but there's no real attachment. There wasn't much mourning over the Guardians leaving during the hiatus, and the Generals were never even there.

[4th&long]

The league is also going to have to rely on attendance instead of size of TV markets, so they have to also have to choose the right stadiums. Spring football in NYC and Philly can work if you get a stadium with a minimum capacity of 15,000. The size of the TV markets won't matter if there are only 10,000 people in attendance weekly at MetLife or the Linc. There are MLS stadiums in those cities and even though the cities may own the stadiums, MLS teams at Red Bull and Subaru are the primary tenants and will have a say on whether or not they want their fields ruined by American football during their seasons. Same such situation would occur at the new stadium in Queens for New York City FC when that opens. NYCFC will have a say on whether or not they want their field ruined by Spring football at their new stadium. None of those three teams may be as open to hosting spring football as DC United is at Audi Field. The second option would be college stadiums. Franklin Field in Philadelphia might be an option if there are 5 open dates and same goes for Columbia University's Wien Stadium in New York. But Franklin Field has a capacity of 53,000, so 10,000-20,000 fans would look empty.

There is Boston. That could cause bigger problems for spring football than Philly and NYC. While I think Philly and NYC can get at least 10,000 fans to attend their games (assuming they get the right venues), I don't think the same for Boston as I don't think they can get the crowds and there is probably lack of fan interest. There's Alumni Stadium in Boston College that seats 44,000 but they might not be as open to hosting spring football as the University of Houston was with the last two versions of the XFL. If Boston College says no, spring football isn't happening in Boston. There are plans for an MLS stadium in Everett, but that has a long way to go before it's a done deal and those plans could collapse. Boston may not be needed though if this league can get NYC and Philly.

Pittsburgh might be in an even worse situation than Philly, NYC and Boston with regards to venues. The only football stadium is Acrisure, which might be too big and too expensive. The soccer stadium is too small at 5,000 people. The fan support may not even be there for the Maulers.

As for Florida, Tampa might be revisited again if USF is open to hosting Spring football at their on campus stadium. Orlando could be revisited again in the future, whether its at Camping World or somewhere else. UCF might be reluctant to host spring football at their stadium as they were burned by the AAF. Exploria Stadium is an MLS stadium, but again, Orlando City SC will have a say on if they want spring football played on their field. Not sure if Miami is a fit for a spring league but if they are the options should be DRV PNK in Fort Lauderdale (18,000) and FIU Stadium on the campus of Florida International University (20,000).

The league can not rely on attendance to pay the bills or attract investors. Its secondary to a Media rights deal. Remember there are only 5 home games. Will strong local support translate into better local TV rating, media/press coverage, and fan interest - yes. Does Attendance feed off that and help on the revenue side - yes. But it can't replace a strong media rights deal.

AS far as TB or Orlando. Either can work in either legacy "league".

But regardless of cost, not being in NY area is a no no. They need to find a way. Hopefully in 2025. Its clear CA is off limits and NJ/NY are high cost/regs too. But NY/NJ is too big to ignore.

As far as Philly. Going to Leigh or similar that far out is a non-starter. While the city heading in wrong direction and is high cost, outside the city should work. That leaves Subaru stadium. If they truly bail on NY/NJ than they really need to make philly work.

I think attendance is more important than TV rights. No network will be interested in a league who always plays in empty stadiums. TV rights will come and be much higher if the product is sustainable, including attendance. I have always thought the optics of 15,000 people in a 20,000 seat stadium is much better visually than 15,000 in an 80,000 seat stadium. Showing 15,000 people in a 20,000 seat stadium for every team shows that this is a league that could have staying power and attract a lot of money, including for TV. Showing 12,000 to 15,000 people in an 80,000 seat stadium is not a good look for the league and won't attract as much money as an attendance of 15,000 in a 20,000 seat stadium. Local press coverage would be more positive if you are able to get an attendance of 15,000 in a 20,000 seat stadium. Otherwise, the local press would refer to the league as a joke and not taken seriously if games are played in near empty stadiums.

Interesting but can't agree, Of course its unlikely that any team playing in Mkt will have empty stadium. But
TV ratings , are TV viewers. And TV viewership is what this league is about. The XFL/USFL 2023 ratings were virtually Identical (634k vs 631k), with one having in mkt games and the other w/4 hub guest teams. I think you are getting too caught up on the perception that attendance supposedly provides.