XFL, USFL in “advanced” merger talks

[johnnyangryfuzzball]

I would guess the teams most at risk of not joining the combined league would be the ones that currently don't have stadium venues (whichever teams play in away hubs in the USFL, and Vegas in the XFL). I'm not sure what other considerations would go into eliminating teams that play in home stadiums (travel distance from the rest of the league? cost of rent? merch/attendance numbers from the previous season?).

There's some scuttlebutt of a relocation of the Sea Dragons due to distance from everyone else.

One one hand, I understand, but on the other hand, best case scenario, you'd like to have as much of the country covered as possible to potentially gain the greatest amount of interest in the league.

It also opens up later time slots for games than would otherwise be realistic. An 11 p.m. kickoff looks silly in New Jersey or Florida... but in Seattle, it's 8 p.m. It helps with scheduling, as we saw this past season.

Of course, the big elephant in the room is California. Most of the good West Coast markets (Oakland, Sacramento, San Diego) are in that state, but neither league is willing to deal with Newsom. That means, short of putting a team in Tijuana (which would be a clever way of giving San Diego a team indirectly), that leaves only two Pacific Time Zone major markets, Seattle and Portland.

[johnnyangryfuzzball]

There's some scuttlebutt of a relocation of the Sea Dragons due to distance from everyone else.

One one hand, I understand, but on the other hand, best case scenario, you'd like to have as much of the country covered as possible to potentially gain the greatest amount of interest in the league.

The PST is only 17% of the country EST zone is 49% and CST about 29%.

I really don't get the obsession with market size.

I mean, when St. Louis is drawing 38,000 and LA drew 13,000... it's not the be-all and end-all. This isn't the 1980s and even then, the Chicago Blitz was Exhibit A in why obsessing over market size isn't helpful. Exhibit B, I'll point to the CFL, where you have world-city Toronto struggling and tiny steeltown Hamilton drawing good crowds.

It'd be different if they were putting teams in places like Billings, Montana and Odessa, Texas (ahem). But other than Birmingham, every XFL and USFL city has at least one other major league squad. These are all cities that are known to support professional sport at the highest level.

Splitting hairs on how much market size you cover ignores a lot of inter-market dynamics. You'll have cities in other markets rooting for teams based on college alma mater effect (in 2020, DC had a lot of Buffalo fans thanks to former Bill Cardale Jones and UB star Tyree Jackson; NY had fans in PA thanks to Matt McGloin).

[GregParks]

Kinda surprised the new league would keep the Gamblers over the Roughnecks for Houston since the Gamblers have never actually played in Houston, which in theory would give the Roughnecks a fanbase advantage. But if there's 10 teams, you gotta throw the USFL a bone somewhere I guess and making it 6 XFL to 4 USFL probably sounds better for a merged league than 7 XFL to 3 USFL. Also a bit surprised Michigan isn't in there for the USFL since they already used Ford Field as a hub.

[johnnyangryfuzzball]

Mike Mitchell was on The XFL Insider Podcast posted today:

https://xflboard.com/news/live-episode- ... -tha-king/

He's also on the Markcast live right now. Not a lot new except he noted this whole thing started when league personnel men from the USFL and XFL began talking, unofficially, about working together, and each took the idea to their higher-ups in the league office. Both leagues seemed willing to talk and here we are.

He also thought it could be a merger where the leagues work together in some capacity but stay separate entities - same season, championship game against each other, something like that. I really doubt that if only because unless they share resources, it doesn't solve the problems of (a) easing the financial burden of ownership or (b) creating new revenue streams in the same way that combining into one entity could potentially do.

There's a strong possibility given the way the TV contracts are structured (especially with ESPN having an XFL exclusivity clause through '27) that it might HAVE to be that way, much as the AFL and NFL agreed to merge after '66 but couldn't legally do it until the TV deals ran out in '70.

[yg1968]

[4th&long]

>>The Markcast®@the_markcast
Per @ByMikeMitchell
LIVE on our podcast right now in terms of the teams that will survive an @XFL2023
-@USFL
merger.




"Ten teams, April start"

"Stallions, Memphis, Ohio-based team, Gambers on the #USFL side.

"No Roughnecks and Vipers on #XFL side"
Quote
The Markcast®
@the_markcast·
48m.@ByMikeMitchell joining us LIVE to talk through the #XFL-#USFL merger now!!!

#XFL2024
#USFL2024 <<

Granted this is just what MM is hearing and not confirmed... and he was caught off guard in general. Having said that lets take it at face value for this post.
I'm a little shocked that NJ is out on his list and the small TV market size in aggregate he is hearing. And Michigan too but they are not selling tickets so its possible. The 10 teams he list add up to only 13.83% of Neilsen House Holds? That sounds small for 10 teams. But the 10 teams was right in my estimate. No way they merging without cutting teams.
The April start was what Fox wanted all along for programming so understandable. ABC only getting one game a week? NBC 2 games... Fox 2 games a week. Well I called the instability of Disney and lack of payments for a while and that could all be true.
Not going with XFL or USFL seems odd. Starting a new branding effort sounds expensive.

Now MM is only hearing this from XFL side for the most part, so lets see how true it becomes.

[4th&long]

>> Tony Paul@TonyPaul1984
I can confirm that the USFL and the XFL are looking to merge as early as 2024, and as late as 2025. What that means for the Michigan Panthers remains unclear, but being a pretty popular brand with pretty good attendance, I can't see them going anywhere.
detroitnews.com
USFL, XFL hoping to merge for 2024 season; what does that mean for Panthers?
Michigan Panthers head coach Mike Nolan is under contract for 2024, and told The News he expects to continue coaching in Detroit.
8:58 PM · Sep 20, 2023 <<

I'm surprised that Michigan is not on MM list myself but he's hearing mostly from XFL personnel. 10 teams makes sense though. I see Michigan over Seattle or Orlando but that's just my opinion.

[GregParks]

Mike Mitchell was on The XFL Insider Podcast posted today:

https://xflboard.com/news/live-episode- ... -tha-king/

He's also on the Markcast live right now. Not a lot new except he noted this whole thing started when league personnel men from the USFL and XFL began talking, unofficially, about working together, and each took the idea to their higher-ups in the league office. Both leagues seemed willing to talk and here we are.

He also thought it could be a merger where the leagues work together in some capacity but stay separate entities - same season, championship game against each other, something like that. I really doubt that if only because unless they share resources, it doesn't solve the problems of (a) easing the financial burden of ownership or (b) creating new revenue streams in the same way that combining into one entity could potentially do.

There's a strong possibility given the way the TV contracts are structured (especially with ESPN having an XFL exclusivity clause through '27) that it might HAVE to be that way, much as the AFL and NFL agreed to merge after '66 but couldn't legally do it until the TV deals ran out in '70.

That's part of the reason I was surprised they were aiming for a 2024 start with this merged league and why I said that felt "ambitious." There's a lot of stuff (i.e. contracts) that, legally, would need to be untangled in order to get to that point.

[GregParks]

Also, imagine being Anthony Blevins. You left your NFL job to take maybe the only HC job you'll get in your career, only to have the team you were hired for dissolve before you even played a game. I hope the new merged league finds a place for him - seems like that's the least they could do.

[4th&long]

Also, imagine being Anthony Blevins. You left your NFL job to take maybe the only HC job you'll get in your career, only to have the team you were hired for dissolve before you even played a game. I hope the new merged league finds a place for him - seems like that's the least they could do.

See it happen in biz world all the time. It sux but it happens.