USFL Championship prediction:

[laxtreme56]

A very slight upward adjustment to 1.16 million viewers for the championship. Huge drop from last years 1.52 million and about 19% below the XFL 1.43M back in May.

http://www.thetvratingsguide.com/2023/0 ... s-low.html

[4th&long]

https://www.spoilertv.com/2023/07/tv-ra ... -2023.html

USFL 2023 Championship: 1157k viewers (down 24% from 2022)
Compared to USFL 2022: 1517k on Sunday night FOX (7/3); XFL 2023 on Saturday night (5/13) 1436k

Two small market teams totaling 1.57% US household marketshare, vs 2x USFL 2022 3.11% and 3x XFL 2023 4.57%.
Market size matters. Plus no PFT (NBC's football premier website) leading up to championship didn't help).

All things considered, big holiday weekend and good weather across most of USA, the small markets involved and lack of NBC promo... it wasn't unexpected nor awful though disappointing.

Full Season 2023 USFL: 631k
Compared to 2022 USFL: 747k (39 games including opening simulacast NBC/Fox On Easter Sunday w/e);
XFL 2023: 634k

In a virtual dead heat XFL tops USFL by 3k avg for season for bragging rights.

More breakdown:
USFL 2023 weeks 2 thru Championship 2023: 615k (39 games)
USFL 2022 weeks 2 thru Championship 2022: 653k (35 games)
XFL 2023 weeks 2 thru Championship 2023: 567k (39 games)

[GregParks]

A very slight upward adjustment to 1.16 million viewers for the championship. Huge drop from last years 1.52 million and about 19% below the XFL 1.43M back in May.

http://www.thetvratingsguide.com/2023/0 ... s-low.html

Most interesting to me is the key demo ratings - XFL had a .35 in 18-49 while USFL had .16. So despite less than 300k total viewers separating them, XFL more than doubled USFL in demo rating. And this is the best 1:1 rating comparison you're going to get (both champ games, both on network, both Sat. night at 8pm EST). You can say time of year played a part, but this is a phenomenon I first noted when the leagues overlapped for a few weeks and wrote about it in my XFL ratings column.

[4th&long]

A very slight upward adjustment to 1.16 million viewers for the championship. Huge drop from last years 1.52 million and about 19% below the XFL 1.43M back in May.

http://www.thetvratingsguide.com/2023/0 ... s-low.html

Most interesting to me is the key demo ratings - XFL had a .35 in 18-49 while USFL had .16. So despite less than 3,000 total viewers separating them, XFL more than doubled USFL in demo rating. And this is the best 1:1 rating comparison you're going to get (both champ games, both on network, both Sat. night at 8pm EST). You can say time of year played a part, but this is a phenomenon I first noted when the leagues overlapped for a few weeks and wrote about it in my XFL ratings column.

Greg - Is it the Rock or ESPN just having a younger audience? More larger urban (engaged) markets? Will it translate into more $$ or is this roughly going to give the leagues the same TV revenue? And how does the demo help the XFL if Disney get the revenue primarily?

These are just some questions we may not get answers to, but regardless are relevant.
As far as demo without reasons neither league will be able to target expanding on it.

Hopefully USFL comes back in 2024 but we shall see. Overall USFL ratings were down 6% weeks 2-championship, that's with the overlaping 2 full weeks plus playoffs, a disastrous 3 hour rain delay and 1 game moved last minute up 3 hours. Without those alone I see them meeting or topping 2022 (wk2-champ).

Without some coordination or outright merger/combo both will not reach full potential and may both fold.

[laxtreme56]

I'm not on Twitter so can't see the full discussion, but Mike Mitchell was asked if NBC was happy with this year's ratings. His answer, ""From what I have been hearing all season. No."

[4th&long]

I'm not on Twitter so can't see the full discussion, but Mike Mitchell was asked if NBC was happy with this year's ratings. His answer, ""From what I have been hearing all season. No."

Wouldn't surprise me as they haven't been promoting it even in a low cost way (ie like on PFT) at all. Plus that 3 hour rain delay and other time change. Plus the USA numbers dropped from 331k to 233k.
Having said that their ratings on NBC 2023 Wk 2-Championship was 928k avg and 2022 it was 953k avg. And that's including the rain delays etc and XFL overlap, so down 2.6% wasn't a big change.

(and I'm not on twitter either, but that link worked!)

[GDAWG]

Speaking of NBC, they are reportedly interested in bringing the NBA back to their network, which means only one thing:

[4th&long]

Speaking of NBC, they are reportedly interested in bringing the NBA back to their network, which means only one thing:

Earliest NBC would be 2025 fall so NBC has 2 spring seasons to go, current contract runs thru fall 2024-2025 season.

Also it would mean ESPN/Disney would have more viewing windows open? Its hard to fully assess for that much time out...

[laxtreme56]

Speaking of NBC, they are reportedly interested in bringing the NBA back to their network, which means only one thing:

Earliest NBC would be 2025 fall so NBC has 2 spring seasons to go, current contract runs thru fall 2024-2025 season.

Also it would mean ESPN/Disney would have more viewing windows open? Its hard to fully assess for that much time out...

Not sure how accurate it is, but someone on Reddit stated the NBC deal is for 3 years, with an opt-out clause built in? Will they bail on season 3? I don't think so, but I'd expect less primetime games on NBC and more noon kickoffs on USA

[4th&long]

Speaking of NBC, they are reportedly interested in bringing the NBA back to their network, which means only one thing:

Earliest NBC would be 2025 fall so NBC has 2 spring seasons to go, current contract runs thru fall 2024-2025 season.

Also it would mean ESPN/Disney would have more viewing windows open? Its hard to fully assess for that much time out...

Not sure how accurate it is, but someone on Reddit stated the NBC deal is for 3 years, with an opt-out clause built in? Will they bail on season 3? I don't think so, but I'd expect less primetime games on NBC and more noon kickoffs on USA

Who knows, as with Disney deal it wasn't transparent.

I could see less USA unless its at night and agree less NBC primetime and more Day time, since that doesn't take away from their stronger primetime which they have rerun options and the day times have been pretty good.
In 2023 they did 8 daytime with 3 primetime. I could see that 9 or 10 daytime. They could also do some straight peacock.
If NBC does bail on 2023 - I can see the league fold (maybe), merge with XFL or reduce to 6 teams (3 games a week) 2 games on FOX and 1 on FS1 on avg. Get rid of NOLA and PITT - get into Philly/NJ location. Leaving 13.5% market share coverage, reduced cost and less games to find viewers to fill. The lack of NBC league promotion was disappointing and annoying.