USFL Week 10 predictions:

[4th&long]

To early for predictions... will do later in week... for now the games and some notes:

Sat  6/17/2023     1:00 PM    USA, Peacock     Pittsburgh Maulers at New Jersey Generals        Canton
Sat  6/17/2023     4:00 PM    FOX                    Birmingham Stallions at Memphis Showboats     Memphis
Sun  6/18/2023    4:00 PM    FS1                      New Orleans Breakers at Houston Gamblers     Memphis
Sun  6/18/2023    7:00 PM    FOX                    Philadelphia Stars at Michigan Panthers             Detroit

The NBA season is over, there will not be a game 7 playing against Stars v Panthers Sunday night. However, once again there will be a NYY v Boston game on SNB - ugh. Would have preferred the USA move to NBC after losing that wk 9 game to rain delay.
The NHL season has concluded as well. The big team sport now is MLB and other niche sports including USFL, WNBA, College baseball, LaCrosse, etc... There's also Golf and racing.

[4th&long]

Predictions week 10:

Sat 6/17/2023 1:00 PM USA, Peacock Pittsburgh Maulers at New Jersey Generals Canton
NJ wins-but special teams could cost them, 44 pts, 225k viewers

Sat 6/17/2023 4:00 PM FOX Birmingham Stallions at Memphis Showboats Memphis
Memphis-Birm has nothing on the line, 48 pts, 675k viewers

Sun 6/18/2023 4:00 PM FS1 New Orleans Breakers at Houston Gamblers Memphis
NOLA in a tight one, 50pts, 235k viewers

Sun 6/18/2023 7:00 PM FOX Philadelphia Stars at Michigan Panthers Detroit
Phila. - can't see Mich Off doing enough, 46 pts, 1000 viewers (SNB is again NYY v Boston)

[4th&long]

The USFL didn't have a great final week, the primetime game was up against the US Open - even MLB took a hit Sunday night (Boston v NYY) and Saturday FOX (TB v SD).
I didnt see the US Open going late... poor choice for primetme game.
Also the FS1 last minute resch did poorly on Sunday. They should have rescheduled 5-6 days earlier. Having said that here are the numbers per Showbuzz:

https://showbuzzdaily.com/articles/sked ... -2023.html

Saturday: Maulers-Generals (USA): 240K (prediction 225k)
Saturday: Stallions-Showboats (FOX): 636K (prediction 675k)
Sunday: Breakers-Gamblers (FS1): 167K (prediction 235k, last minute time chg really hurt)
Sunday Night: Stars-Panthers (FOX): 710k (prediction 1000k, US Open, 6mm, took down every thing)

YTD Reg Season 604k; XFL Reg Season 617k

Things should tighten up with playoffs. Uncanny how close these two leagues are.

NOTE: Week 9 no US Open on Sunday night - USFL 903k 7pm, SNB same two teams prior week 1942k this week 1433k. US Open grabbed 25-30% from USFL/MLB.

[Invaders]

Hate to see this. Anyone following the league in any fashion would know that those were essentially playoff games for the most part.

While I prefer the USFL, it's hard not to argue that the XFL should be a lot happier with similar ratings in the sense that they had much worse networks and scheduling and much better fan support (at a much higher ticket price as well).

I keep hoping this catches fire, but I think it'll take getting into home stadiums and some roster consistency to some degree. I really enjoyed watching year 2 with some players that I recognized from year 1. Also, some players were noticeable with their absence (none more than Luis Perez). Hopefully the roster changes and bouncing back and forth from the XFL/USFL will settle a bit. For instance, if Luis Perez doesn't make it in the NFL, hopefully he goes back to Arlington instead of becoming a Pittsburgh Mauler...

[4th&long]

Hate to see this. Anyone following the league in any fashion would know that those were essentially playoff games for the most part.

While I prefer the USFL, it's hard not to argue that the XFL should be a lot happier with similar ratings in the sense that they had much worse networks and scheduling and much better fan support (at a much higher ticket price as well).

I keep hoping this catches fire, but I think it'll take getting into home stadiums and some roster consistency to some degree. I really enjoyed watching year 2 with some players that I recognized from year 1. Also, some players were noticeable with their absence (none more than Luis Perez). Hopefully the roster changes and bouncing back and forth from the XFL/USFL will settle a bit. For instance, if Luis Perez doesn't make it in the NFL, hopefully he goes back to Arlington instead of becoming a Pittsburgh Mauler...

Yet Fans in stands have had no noticable impact on TV viewership. I do believe playing in home markets generates local Media and Press coverage which USFL lacks in its 3 biggest markets and that will help local ratings. I also think leaving TB for the much smaller Memphis was unwise. FL is FB country and there are alot of rainy days in TB to be watching TV.
Other items of note:

- Sans the Simucast opener the 2022 USFL avg 645k viewers in reg season over 35 games (4 were peacock exclusive). That's a 6% drop to 604.
- XFL overlap hurt both leagues
- USFL had flex scheduling in 2022. 2023 had fixed scheduling, thought that would help but inability to work around other sports hurt.
- Weather changes in Memphis caused 2 slumps in 2023
- Spring FB had 39 televised games in 2022, but will have 86 in 2023. That likely hurt both leagues, having said that ratings have mostly held up for both.
- Cable continues to bleed customers.

Will do a postmortem after season. One thing is sure. One stronger league has a better chance of surviving vs 2 lessor ones.

[Invaders]

Don't disagree with anything you've said and I definitely hope 600k is a number that the leagues and networks can work with. My point with the XFL tickets and ticket price was just the extra revenue generated. Obviously these leagues are outdrawing the MLS with ratings on TV, but the MLS does do well with actual attendance and ticket prices. It's not the same as TV contracts, but it certainly can't hurt.

It'll be interesting to see how long both leagues make it. Hopefully perpetually. I'd love to see some crossover. Maybe take a week at the end of XFL and beginning of USFL and match the teams into a one off game based on previous year's records or an XFL-USFL championship game or whatever. I think it would be good to generate some excitement for the leagues if they could figure something out similar to the champions league for soccer where this year's entrants are based on last year's results. I'm sure brighter minds than myself could figure something out if the will was there.

[4th&long]

Don't disagree with anything you've said and I definitely hope 600k is a number that the leagues and networks can work with. My point with the XFL tickets and ticket price was just the extra revenue generated. Obviously these leagues are outdrawing the MLS with ratings on TV, but the MLS does do well with actual attendance and ticket prices. It's not the same as TV contracts, but it certainly can't hurt.

It'll be interesting to see how long both leagues make it. Hopefully perpetually. I'd love to see some crossover. Maybe take a week at the end of XFL and beginning of USFL and match the teams into a one off game based on previous year's records or an XFL-USFL championship game or whatever. I think it would be good to generate some excitement for the leagues if they could figure something out similar to the champions league for soccer where this year's entrants are based on last year's results. I'm sure brighter minds than myself could figure something out if the will was there.

Yep we just don't know how long both leagues will give it a go. I agree, hopefully perpetually.

The XFL does have extra revenue generated from tickets. We just don't know how much is at what price level and how much discounting/promo there was, so its some $$ amount but who knows. The USFL also had ticket sales but were priced to sell and there will be much less revenue there, along with far fewer fans in the stands. But they have far fewer costs.

The existence of 2 vs one league certainly muddies the waters. I agree doing something aka crossover or what have you would heighten interest, even if temporary.

If the USFL gets about roughly 3mm viewers across the final 3 games the leagues will be about the same for the season. So that's the number to target, more could happen, but maybe less, we shall see.