Fox EVP defines success for the USFL

[herns]

“Countdown to Football. What is success for the USFL? To me it’s establishing that the league can more than hold its own with other sports that are longtime staples of the Spring calendar, some of which have recently earned big rights increases or are about to.”

As I’ve tried explaining Fox cares most about viewership and if it has good viewership(700k-1.5mil is what they set expectations at) then it’ll be seen as a success.

https://twitter.com/mulvihill79/status/ ... xSMgZrCsVg

[laxtreme56]

That's a fair statement. It also shows we can't pop open bottles of champagne after week 1, week 4, 8, and the playoffs are most important. I'm sure opening weekend will generate interest, but we can't see ratings drop 75+% as they have in the last few spring endeavors

[herns]

That's a fair statement. It also shows we can't pop open bottles of champagne after week 1, week 4, 8, and the playoffs are most important. I'm sure opening weekend will generate interest, but we can't see ratings drop 75+% as they have in the last few spring endeavors

Exactly right. How big the drop off from week 1 to week 2 is isn’t a huge deal since it’s expected, it’s more can it sustain around a million and then have an uptick for playoffs and championship

[johnnyangryfuzzball]

Also remember that because it's starting in April, the initial number will almost certainly be much lower, but the dropoff probably won't be as extreme.

If they get 2 million week 1, I'll be very pleasantly surprised.

[herns]

Also remember that because it's starting in April, the initial number will almost certainly be much lower, but the dropoff probably won't be as extreme.

If they get 2 million week 1, I'll be very pleasantly surprised.

Very possible, they do say they chose this timeframe because they think it’s the ideal one. If they meant for sustainability or for big numbers is yet to be seen, I could see opening night being the most watched spring league game we’ve seen in awhile due to the simulcast

[4th&long]

That's a fair statement. It also shows we can't pop open bottles of champagne after week 1, week 4, 8, and the playoffs are most important. I'm sure opening weekend will generate interest, but we can't see ratings drop 75+% as they have in the last few spring endeavors

Ratings always drop for new entities esp with the double broadcast FOX/NBC USFL is starting with.

Many factors are going to be involved on a weekly basis, other sports on TV and what cities play those games, weather, holidays, game times, and of course the game play etc...

The XFL 2.0 averaged 1.9mm across broadcast & cable over 5 weeks. Even if they averaged 600k the remaining weeks that's still 1.25mm for the season.

IMO, as I've posted before I see the USFL 25% lower for market size and another % off for spring. I'm thinking first 5 week of 900k-1.1mm, broadcast and cable.

With TSL getting 400k into June on 1 game a week on FOX, I think Broadcast for first 5-7 weeks should be good. But we'll see.

I can tell you XFL and USFL both want USFL to do well enough.

[4th&long]

Also remember that because it's starting in April, the initial number will almost certainly be much lower, but the dropoff probably won't be as extreme.

If they get 2 million week 1, I'll be very pleasantly surprised.

With the opening game on both FOX and NBC and at night - That game should do well above that.

[johnnyangryfuzzball]

Also remember that because it's starting in April, the initial number will almost certainly be much lower, but the dropoff probably won't be as extreme.

If they get 2 million week 1, I'll be very pleasantly surprised.

With the opening game on both FOX and NBC and at night - That game should do well above that.

It's also Easter Sunday. Weather is improving in much of the country, and Saturday has always been the networks' weakest night. AAF got 2.9mil in the week after the Super Bowl (February), and XFL2 got 3.1mil. A 1mil per network between Fox and NBC is reasonable to project.

Easter is the big wildcard—will people stay inside to watch second tier football?

[4th&long]

Also remember that because it's starting in April, the initial number will almost certainly be much lower, but the dropoff probably won't be as extreme.

If they get 2 million week 1, I'll be very pleasantly surprised.

With the opening game on both FOX and NBC and at night - That game should do well above that.

It's also Easter Sunday. Weather is improving in much of the country, and Saturday has always been the networks' weakest night. AAF got 2.9mil in the week after the Super Bowl (February), and XFL2 got 3.1mil. A 1mil per network between Fox and NBC is reasonable to project.

Easter is the big wildcard—will people stay inside to watch second tier football?

Agree on the spring aspect (look at my post above and many other prior posts), I feel 20-40% drop for spring vs winter is probable but I've also stated else, Fox has a reason for this time frame and so does NBC.

NY looks rainy on Friday.

I'm projecting 4-5.5mm total for Saturday night due to the 2 network approach. It's a guess but 2 major networks televising the game is huge.

[herns]

Also remember that because it's starting in April, the initial number will almost certainly be much lower, but the dropoff probably won't be as extreme.

If they get 2 million week 1, I'll be very pleasantly surprised.

With the opening game on both FOX and NBC and at night - That game should do well above that.

It's also Easter Sunday. Weather is improving in much of the country, and Saturday has always been the networks' weakest night. AAF got 2.9mil in the week after the Super Bowl (February), and XFL2 got 3.1mil. A 1mil per network between Fox and NBC is reasonable to project.

Easter is the big wildcard—will people stay inside to watch second tier football?

We’ll see, a theory fox is apparently playing with is Easter games could be equal to what thanksgiving has been for the NFL.with how different they’re doing things it makes it hard to set expectations for viewership and make what would feel like an accurate guess