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UFL 2025: Make Or Break Season for Spring Pro Football's Staying Power

The USFL-XFL merged United Football League is set for its second season. However, there's a growing belief that without significant progress towards greater relevance, the 2025 season could potentially be its final outing.

Mike Mitchell

With the NFL and College season in full swing, chances are that the UFL is the furthest thing on the minds of the majority of football fans.

Football enthusiasts are fully immersed in the NFL season and the evolution towards a broader college playoff system. Within the confines of a specialized football community, however, the news of the UFL's second season starting next March has resonated.

Therein lies the rub and challenge the United Football League faces as it heads toward year two of a merged entity that has yet to win over mainstream football fans.

As the NFL and College Football continue to eclipse viewership markers, the UFL remains an afterthought. That's not to state that there isn't some spring pro football influence seeing its way onto fields in the fall. Look no further than the NFL's adoption of the XFL kickoff or the continuing success of spring league stars like Dallas Cowboys All-World kicker Brandon Aubrey.

However, these peripheral achievements must extend beyond catering to the football landscape. To ensure its longevity, the UFL must pivot towards establishing itself as a widely recognized independent brand.

Since 2019's AAF, Spring Pro Football has existed in some form on national television. Each entity that has come forward has struggled to break through and become a popular and most importantly profitable proposition.

In the last few years, FOX Sports and Redbird Capital Partners have successfully adapted models for financial survival. However, even with a measured approach, the USFL, XFL and now UFL have operated in the red, incurring losses at an acceptable rate but at a loss nonetheless.

The question is how much longer will FOX and RedBird play this losing game for?

The merger of the UFL came about because neither side saw the light at the end of the tunnel as separate entities. The UFL was born out of the idea of finally achieving commercial success.

The 2024 UFL season was a mixed bag. The league had a solid on-field product and improved television ratings from its predecessors, but the league fell short at drawing fans to games.

Ultimately, the UFL's inability to generate local or national media interest limited the league's drawing power. The mainstream sports media barely covered the UFL.

Inside the UFL, multiple voices believe that the 2025 season will be the league's last if interest in the property doesn't grow. The expectation is that TV ratings have reached their floor and that if the UFL doesn't garner an increase in local and national sponsorships, the next UFL campaign will be its last.

Beyond amping efforts to establish local market teams to build interest, the UFL has a serious awareness problem in the sports landscape. The property is not seen as a major league and likely never will be. Unless that reality changes, the road to long-term viability in spring pro football will end.

Mike has been pounding this drum for a while now, that year two would kind of be the make-or-break year for the UFL. This article makes it seem a little more dire than I'd hoped. 

I understand spring football is an expensive endeavor, but this thing is going to need a solid decade to find its sea legs. How or why the league thinks they're going to become "big time" in 2 years is beyond me.

MLS teams still regularly lose money 30 years later. Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver collectively lose $20M+ a year in the CFL. Sure they've made a few front office hires and I guess there's a bit more promotion going around this off-season, but nothing that makes me think season 2 is going to blow the roof off. In fact I can easily see a significant decrease in attendance in St. Louis as the novelty is off and the pitiful XFL championship performance didn't do them any favors.

I'll enjoy it while it lasts but I'm fully prepared to have a life without spring football (again).

GregParks wrote: ↑Tue Oct 01, 2024 2:41 pm Mike has been pounding this drum for a while now, that year two would kind of be the make-or-break year for the UFL. This article makes it seem a little more dire than I'd hoped. 

https://www.si.com/fannation/ufl/ufl-ne ... ying-power

Link to the story.

My fear all along was the presence of the XFL when the USFL was already playing - which did increase costs - would hurt the chances long term.  The merge at least rectified that but some damage was already done.

But their are other reasons outside of the UFL that could be taking RBC focus away.  1) The Paramount buyout is a big undertaking and RBC is a big partner in that.  2) CFB is going through a transformation and sports money may be redirected there by RBC.

For FOX gaining Racing on the weekends may have eliminated the need for sports programming on the weekends in April/May & June.

Also being in small markets of Memphis, Birmingham may hurt TV chances.  Fox did not care about attendance - RBC/XFL did so the merger both helped but hurt here.

Also the strides the WNBA made may make Disney (ESPN/ABC) less interested.  That's why bringing TNT Sports may be key.  They need programming.

I definitely do not like that Fox is not playing up the UFL/USFL/XFL players in the NFL during NFL games this year.  So far NO UFL ads but its early yet.   However I will say if Fox gets even decent ratings on Friday nights I don't see them giving up.

MLS and WNBA took decades to make any strides. Neither is seen as a major sport (is MLS even seen?).  The ratings were very good last year.  I hope Mike is wrong.

**  Also the league made significant strides last year as summarized by the UFL post 2024 season Press Release:

https://www.theufl.com/news/2024/june/2 ... er-metrics

>> The season was highlighted by extraordinary action on the field, groundbreaking television broadcasts, significant social media interactions, and strong corporate partner support.

The League’s inaugural season exceeded expectations, building on the legacies of both the USFL and XFL brands. For 2025, the focus remains on continued execution and innovation, both on and off the field, to benefit players, fans, viewers, and corporate partners.

“With our first championship in the books, the UFL has clearly made its mark in the spring sports calendar with strong viewership across platforms all season long. The high-level, quality football on the field paired with our innovative production and content distribution approach has been a winning combination for football fans,” said Russ Brandon, President and CEO, United Football League.  

Brandon continued, “The UFL has had consistently high levels of engagement throughout the season, which serves as proof of concept, confirming the undeniable demand for spring football. We appreciate the support we've received from our players, league and team-level employees, partners, and fans. With a robust foundation in place, we are poised to continue our growth trajectory as we look ahead to 2025 and beyond.” <<

Its roughly just three months since this came out... If it folds its due to RBC and/or Fox having other priorities or issues, not a lack of UFL moving ahead.

 

johnnyangryfuzzball wrote: ↑Tue Oct 01, 2024 5:03 pm

GregParks wrote: ↑Tue Oct 01, 2024 2:41 pm Mike has been pounding this drum for a while now, that year two would kind of be the make-or-break year for the UFL. This article makes it seem a little more dire than I'd hoped. 

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense knowing the business of pro sports—and the whole idea of these unnamed inside sources looks painfully unprofessional, which pains me to say knowing that Mitchell is an alumnus of this board and is very much professional in much of his writing.

This league doesn't have the indications that it's behaving desperately or making any rash decisions. It's not suing the NFL, it's not going radio-silence like the last UFL, it's not bouncing payroll, it's not suddenly catching expansion fever in a gasp for more money like the indoor leagues usually do. Conversely, it's not contracting to six or even five teams just to keep afloat. When past leagues went out of business, there were usually clear, glaring warning signs beforehand. There aren't with the UFL. It has robust backing from two big legacy media outlets and a private hedge fund capital firm that is 1) backed by UAE oil money and 2) about to buy a third major legacy media outlet.

The only real negative report we've had so far is that Army sponsorship from the guy who wanted the Army to buy ads on TikTok instead. That's a pittance compared to that 2010 report from the last UFL that showed even the successful markets were losing six to seven times as much money as they were bringing in. Or the AAF drama in 2019 surrounding Tom Dundon and Reggie Fowler. We know the XFL had a lot more revenue, especially sponsorship revenue, in 2023, and the USFL had the integration with Fox that saved a lot of money. Will it ever make money? I guess that's the wrong question, but rather will it be cost-effective enough for the networks to keep paying to produce it like other TV shows in an era when sports is one of the few things linear TV can count on for viewers?

Desperate leagues do not stay the course.

Now, suppose the UFL suddenly tanks this year... ratings plummet, attendance implodes, even in places like DC and STL. I don't see how that happens but if it did, then maybe we can talk. But like I said, given how much stability they've shown this offseason, I doubt they pull out the stops until next offseason, and they'll do that before they fold up shop.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mncKVwUhRU
from 9/17

The young man puts on a good podcast and James was a good listen as always.  James used the phrase "make or break" season too though it comes across in a different way.

The podcast is time stamped , so you can skip around if needed.   The next yr optimism part kicks in at around 34:30 - check it out.

Hyperbolic speculation. 

Not worthy of a response. 

XFL Crusader" wrote: ↑Thu Oct 03, 2024 9:12 am Hyperbolic speculation. 

Not worthy of a response. 


 

I don't think we can just poo-poo this because Mike is citing sources in the UFL saying this.

The optimist in me says this is people in the league setting the bar low so people will be impressed as long as they don't fall on their faces in 2025.