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Last yr both got just over 630k avgerage with XFL a few thousand lead.  I used Showbuzz for the #'s. This year lets hope SMW keeps doing the daily # thing.

For UFL -2024. Going with a mixed 820k avg viewers - across all 40 games (that includes playoffs with the regionalization overlap).
High range 870k, low 745k
About 910k broadcast and 680k cable
That should include streaming.  

Opening weekend prediction for the 4 games average 1100k.

Hopefully that's not pie-in-sky.  But if you look at USFL 2022 which is more similar to 2024,  their 747k avg including 16 cable games only averaging 311k and their Broadcast avg of 1050k, its in line.    Hopefully they exceed all expectations.

Factors
- smaller TV markets 11.3% Households vs 15.1% in 2023 (USFL) and 12.4% (XFL) height was XFL2020 (22%)
- More Broadcast games than XFL,
- Better Cable than 2023 USFL with ESPN
- ABC/ESPN and FOX
- ESPN SC coverage
- Only 6 Prime time reg games
- 3 games overlapping other games ie regionalization (so 40 total with playoffs on TV vs 86 in 2023)
- Playing in all local markets
- Less MLS on TV
- More consistent schedule
- Eliminated  FB fatigue with XFL & USFL going 20 weeks
- No teams playing in Philly/NJ-NY TV markets
- Schedule later than XFL but earlier than USFL
- Easter w/e opening

What's your thoughts and 2024 Viewership prediction?

Come on peeps - where's the bold and the brave on here.

Let's throw in Attendance too:

This is more of a crap shoot, but we can rank and put #'s:

1) St Louis - 41k
2) San Antonio -18k
3) DC - 15k
4) Arlington - 13k
5) Houston - 12k
6) Birmingham 11k
7) Memphis 9k
8) Michigan 9k

I think Michigan has the most potential to surprise to the upside, the slow ticket rollout and front loaded schedule have hurt though.
Going a bit bold with StL at 41k, but its the 3rd of 5 yrs and they are getting alot of support.  Have their QB back in NFL tested AJ McCarron and Becht is a great cheerleader for the team.

I also think the league standing woun't have the big variations we saw in USFL 2022 or XFL 2023.  I don't see any team under 3-7 and likely better than 7-3.  That will make the season closer and help maintain interest.



 

Would agree for the most part on the viewership. I think the key factor beyond what you are saying is the heavy advertising particularly by Fox (they're even pushing the games on ESPN) and that pushing of brand awareness IMO surely cannot hurt, its not being buried. Like you mention I'm eager to see if the fatigue factor makes a positive difference as I think we can all be a bit weary after months of the NFL and College Football, however I still have a feeling they might go back to a February start next year given the linear timing with NFL camps.

Attendance wise I don't think that will be too far off, I'd maybe swap Memphis and Houston, but I'm splitting hairs. 

The main problem to me is going to be the lack of a geographical spread so you are going to have huge pockets of the country who have no proximity to any of the teams therefore naturally there will be less interest in lots of these places, many of them in some of the most populated regions. I feel the season has been rushed this year to take place out of sheer continuity so I think thats one of the many things they will worry about later somewhat.

Dome Dome Dome" wrote: ↑Mon Mar 18, 2024 1:31 pm Would agree for the most part on the viewership. I think the key factor beyond what you are saying is the heavy advertising particularly by Fox (they're even pushing the games on ESPN) and that pushing of brand awareness IMO surely cannot hurt, its not being buried. Like you mention I'm eager to see if the fatigue factor makes a positive difference as I think we can all be a bit weary after months of the NFL and College Football, however I still have a feeling they might go back to a February start next year given the linear timing with NFL camps.

Attendance wise I don't think that will be too far off, I'd maybe swap Memphis and Houston, but I'm splitting hairs. 

The main problem to me is going to be the lack of a geographical spread so you are going to have huge pockets of the country who have no proximity to any of the teams therefore naturally there will be less interest in lots of these places, many of them in some of the most populated regions. I feel the season has been rushed this year to take place out of sheer continuity so I think thats one of the many things they will worry about later somewhat.


 

Opening weekend ratings might determine when the season begins next year, with Easter weekend (4/19-20) well clear of the Final Four. 

That said, the tourney's best ratings come from when? The first and second rounds. People like to see all the upsets, then when it becomes clear that St. Peter's or whomever is moving on to the Sweet 16 (or gasp, the Elite Eight), then, put it this way, giant killers tend to become ratings killers. Remember the SA/Arlington game last year that overlapped with the CBS doubleheader. One of those games was Creighton/San Diego State, granted mid-majors* as opposed to Cinderella, but I observed at the time it might have actually helped the PGA's recent swoon (certainly that it was a Naismith-style game didn't help/hurt--depending on whom you're talking about)
*-Creighton is Big East but still better known for all the Valley wars all these years later, hardly UConn or Nova

Watch what FOX does. Next year I believe was supposed to be the first of their B1G/Big East/Big XII NIT-style tournament, well after most of the NCAAT screwovers told the NIT to take a hike that has less chance of happening. So I would give a March 22-23 open a slight chance just right there, although with the women's tournament all over ESPN it would mostly be a FOX-centric week 1.

A March 29-30 open would probably be my second, with a return to the post-SB slot very low if not just about out. Remember, timeframe-wise you had higher-profile players who signed that probably wouldn't have if the league were in midseason (Taco Charlton), so that's a factor. Only way I can ever see that coming back is if the league grows to a 16-game schedule.

So in order, I would go:

1)Apr 19-20
2)Mar 29-30
3)Mar 22-23
4)Feb 15-16

Not sure if we'll be doing the weekly attendance and ratings game again this year, but for what it's worth, here's my week 1 predictions.

3/30
Arlington - Birmingham. 14,100 Att. 1.3M on Fox.
Michigan - St. Louis. 12,750 Att. 1.45M on Fox

3/31

San Antonio - DC. 18,750 Att. 875k ESPN
Houston - Memphis. 11,500 Att. 795k ESPN 
 

laxtreme56 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 21, 2024 4:49 pm Not sure if we'll be doing the weekly attendance and ratings game again this year, but for what it's worth, here's my week 1 predictions.

3/30
Arlington - Birmingham. 14,100 Att. 1.3M on Fox.
Michigan - St. Louis. 12,750 Att. 1.45M on Fox

3/31

San Antonio - DC. 18,750 Att. 875k ESPN
Houston - Memphis. 11,500 Att. 795k ESPN 


 

Well I think the latter ESPN game might normally get a bump as a lead-in to Baseball Tonight and Ohtani-mania except that might not be the best thing right now--at least give it more than a week before it becomes a non-story (it'll at least stay alive thru the Dodgers' opening homestand, too late for week 1)

MGB01 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:54 pm Well I think the latter ESPN game might normally get a bump as a lead-in to Baseball Tonight and Ohtani-mania except that might not be the best thing right now--at least give it more than a week before it becomes a non-story (it'll at least stay alive thru the Dodgers' opening homestand, too late for week 1)


 

ARL - Birmingham reaching 2 Mil.