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Your predictions for the debut UFL season?
Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2024 8:42 pm
by Coffeeeyes
With the season being only a few weeks away, let's talk about what we expect from this UFL season!
Anything from attendance to TV figures, championship winners, to passing leaders.
Re: Your predictions for the debut UFL season?
Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2024 11:24 pm
by 4th&long
Coffeeeyes wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2024 8:42 pm
With the season being only a few weeks away, let's talk about what we expect from this UFL season!
Anything from attendance to TV figures, championship winners, to passing leaders.
This is going to be a tough year to call;
The Pros:`
- Earlier start than USFL, less late spring games
- Games on Easter Weekend
- FOX, ABC and ESPN
- No overlapping league play
- 12 weeks of spring FB vs 20 in 2023
- StL attendance
- Playing all games in market vs USFL 4/8
- No spring league competition
The Cons:
- Later start than XFL, less winter games
- Not enough primetime games
- Slow/delayed team promo due to merger
- Bo simucast games
- Lack of major cities like NJ/NY, LA even Philly
- Not practicing in market may hurt local media/press coverage
- Market size for UFL teams = 11.3% vs XFL 2020 = 22%, USFL 2022 =16.3, even XFL 2023 = 12.4%
Preliminary - I'm hoping games avg at least 725k viewers, over 800k would be a big win IMO. I'll be more exact before season starts.
Very early to call best team, or player leaders but Birm has opening advantage. The QBs across the league look solid.
Re: Your predictions for the debut UFL season?
Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:20 pm
by laxtreme56
I hope they follow the XFL model of announcing attendance and not just guesstimates like the USFL did. I think the league cracks the 15k attendance mark, but Detroit and Houston could be pretty detrimental to the overall average.
On the ratings front you'd hope to see at least 725k average, especially with 70+% of games on networks. 800k+ would be ideal, but I'm not sure we're at that point yet.
Quality of play should be improved, especially with longer training camps. The XFL conference will be the tougher one for sure, I think Birmingham represents the USFL conference in the championship game once again
Re: Your predictions for the debut UFL season?
Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:46 pm
by GregParks
laxtreme56 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:20 pm
I hope they follow the XFL model of announcing attendance and not just guesstimates like the USFL did. I think the league cracks the 15k attendance mark, but Detroit and Houston could be pretty detrimental to the overall average.
Nit-picking a little bit here, but the XFL never officially announced attendance; it was always posted by Mike Mitchell, who if I recall got it from XFL or stadium sources. Announcers on TV may have mentioned it at times, but I don't think the league itself ever publicized those numbers.
Re: Your predictions for the debut UFL season?
Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2024 2:15 pm
by MGB01
laxtreme56 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:20 pm
I hope they follow the XFL model of announcing attendance and not just guesstimates like the USFL did. I think the league cracks the 15k attendance mark, but Detroit and Houston could be pretty detrimental to the overall average.
On the ratings front you'd hope to see at least 725k average, especially with 70+% of games on networks. 800k+ would be ideal, but I'm not sure we're at that point yet.
Quality of play should be improved, especially with longer training camps. The XFL conference will be the tougher one for sure, I think Birmingham represents the USFL conference in the championship game once again
The good news is they're all very much doable. Hell Rice got pretty good (relative to what we're talking here) crowds even when they weren't playing Houston, especially when you consider the American was basically half-CUSA anyway. Michigan will be a harder haul (which I've been over repeatedly), might not want to use Puka Nacua's brothers as a selling point too much for obvious reasons.
With mostly ESPN, ABC, and FOX for TV you get more or less the best of both leagues and eliminate the weak links (USA and FX), the challenge is ESPN isn't exactly go-to for weekend afternoon sports in April and May unless we're talking the established like the NBA playoffs, NFL Draft, or in some cases college spring games--they do get one of the Mets/Phillies games from London but that's a novelty thing.
Stallions vs Defenders/BH looks like the clubhouse leader, maybe a BH home game.
Re: Your predictions for the debut UFL season?
Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2024 4:15 pm
by 4th&long
laxtreme56 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:20 pm
I hope they follow the XFL model of announcing attendance and not just guesstimates like the USFL did. I think the league cracks the 15k attendance mark, but Detroit and Houston could be pretty detrimental to the overall average.
On the ratings front you'd hope to see at least 725k average, especially with 70+% of games on networks. 800k+ would be ideal, but I'm not sure we're at that point yet.
Quality of play should be improved, especially with longer training camps. The XFL conference will be the tougher one for sure, I think Birmingham represents the USFL conference in the championship game once again
Sounds like we are on the same page on TV and Attendance side of things. On the fB side i'm thinking it will be more evenwith slight edge to USFL, but with roster chgs for 2024 hard to say.
Concerning Another factor to keep in mind is in 2024 there will not be 43 distinct UFL telecast. Three games will be simulcast. That leaves 40 telecast rated, here's a break down. The Simulcast may help with rationalization but also any weathers delays which hurt the USFL last year.
| Fox* | 18 |
| FS1 | 1 |
| ABC | 10 |
| ESPN | 10 |
| ESPN2 | 1 |
* includes 3 simulcast
So 28/40 games televised on network or as you stated 70%. ESPN has another 25% and ESPN2 / FS1 just 5%.
Using USFL numbers (which more closely tracks the sch dates, however not accounting for lack of overlap or Easter w/e games)..
The 29/43 USFL network games in 2023 averaged 808k viewers, Fox alone 733k
Using the XFL numbers for ESPN in 2023 averaged 611k, ESPN2 456k and FS1 294k. While ABC avg was better they had 2 opening weekend games and championship 3/8 total skewing the avg higher.
For 2024 ad the Easter w/e opening, less total games, no league overlap and simulcast games - hoping 725k is bare min. I'm concerned with mkt size being smaller than XFL or USFL though.
Re: Your predictions for the debut UFL season?
Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2024 7:21 pm
by Coffeeeyes
4th&long wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 4:15 pm
laxtreme56 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:20 pm
I hope they follow the XFL model of announcing attendance and not just guesstimates like the USFL did. I think the league cracks the 15k attendance mark, but Detroit and Houston could be pretty detrimental to the overall average.
On the ratings front you'd hope to see at least 725k average, especially with 70+% of games on networks. 800k+ would be ideal, but I'm not sure we're at that point yet.
Quality of play should be improved, especially with longer training camps. The XFL conference will be the tougher one for sure, I think Birmingham represents the USFL conference in the championship game once again
Sounds like we are on the same page on TV and Attendance side of things. On the fB side i'm thinking it will be more evenwith slight edge to USFL, but with roster chgs for 2024 hard to say.
Concerning Another factor to keep in mind is in 2024 there will not be 43 distinct UFL telecast. Three games will be simulcast. That leaves 40 telecast rated, here's a break down. The Simulcast may help with rationalization but also any weathers delays which hurt the USFL last year.
| Fox* | 18 |
| FS1 | 1 |
| ABC | 10 |
| ESPN | 10 |
| ESPN2 | 1 |
* includes 3 simulcast
So 28/40 games televised on network or as you stated 70%. ESPN has another 25% and ESPN2 / FS1 just 5%.
Using USFL numbers (which more closely tracks the sch dates, however not accounting for lack of overlap or Easter w/e games)..
The 29/43 USFL network games in 2023 averaged 808k viewers, Fox alone 733k
Using the XFL numbers for ESPN in 2023 averaged 611k, ESPN2 456k and FS1 294k. While ABC avg was better they had 2 opening weekend games and championship 3/8 total skewing the avg higher.
For 2024 ad the Easter w/e opening, less total games, no league overlap and simulcast games - hoping 725k is bare min. I'm concerned with mkt size being smaller than XFL or USFL though.
I think the aim for the UFL in decreasing market size in favor of strong local markets is that all of these except a few (Michigan, Arlington) have established themselves and shown through attendance and local support that the ceiling is high to create a large regional fanbase. It’s all about convincing the fairweather fans in some of these places, such as SA, Memphis and Houston that won’t show out if the team isn’t winning.
The real crux to me is the lack of west coast teams, you’re alienating a whole side of the country.
IMO even here in San Diego where I am I’m regularly getting commercials and advertising. At this point, if they don’t get 3mil opening day it might be a failure, then again Birmingham doesn’t appeal to the average guy in Los Angeles, neither does Arlington, same with the avg guy in NYC.
Re: Your predictions for the debut UFL season?
Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2024 9:25 pm
by laxtreme56
I can't see opening weekends touching 3 million viewers. The novelty is over, people know what spring football is at this point. I think you're looking for small, sustained growth in the 5-10% range ratings wise. I could see the network games Easter weekend in the 1.6-1.8M range with ESPN around 750k. Perhaps the championship game in prime-time on Fox could eclipse 2 million viewers.
Re: Your predictions for the debut UFL season?
Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2024 10:46 pm
by johnnyangryfuzzball
laxtreme56 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 9:25 pm
I can't see opening weekends touching 3 million viewers. The novelty is over, people know what spring football is at this point. I think you're looking for small, sustained growth in the 5-10% range ratings wise. I could see the network games Easter weekend in the 1.6-1.8M range with ESPN around 750k. Perhaps the championship game in prime-time on Fox could eclipse 2 million viewers.
Given that it is Easter weekend... I could see 2 million for the opening weekend. People will be sitting around eating dinner, and having football on will feel kind of like Thanksgiving.
Re: Your predictions for the debut UFL season?
Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2024 10:54 pm
by johnnyangryfuzzball
GregParks wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:46 pm
laxtreme56 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:20 pm
I hope they follow the XFL model of announcing attendance and not just guesstimates like the USFL did. I think the league cracks the 15k attendance mark, but Detroit and Houston could be pretty detrimental to the overall average.
Nit-picking a little bit here, but the XFL never officially announced attendance; it was always posted by Mike Mitchell, who if I recall got it from XFL or stadium sources. Announcers on TV may have mentioned it at times, but I don't think the league itself ever publicized those numbers.
That's still more than what Mike was able to get out of the USFL's total embargo.
I recall that most of the attendance figures for the last UFL came from newspapers. I remember that final 2012 season where Sam Boyd Stadium said "well, the *official* attendance was 2,500, but in reality, only 601 people showed up." That league's last game in Virginia Beach ended up having such bad attendance that nobody dared give out a figure. I'm wondering if that's what inspired the USFL to embargo the numbers, ha! Can't get criticized for bad attendance if you don't let them know your attendance, right? (Wrong. The empty stadiums looked silly.)