Wild Hypothesis Time
Posted: Thu Mar 22, 2018 10:38 pm
Okay, so news of the AAF came out of nowhere for most. And based on some trademark filings, etc, it's clear that the AAF, though maybe discussed for a while, only came into being shortly after the XFL announcement.
Here's the thoughts I have on it.
One, Vince and Ebersol have probably talked about what failed in the XFL over these past 17 years. I'm guessing they've done the 'what if' thing again and again in their minds and when they've encountered each other it's probably come up.
Both probably had plans, somewhere, to do it again and make it work. Neither are the type of men that want to be seen as failures. Yes, the 30-for-30 documentary was probably a bite of a primer to see if there really was interest out there for the XFL (or insert-weird-name-here league). And there was. So, both got the ball rolling and took 'idle banter over drinks' to 'let's really do this'.
Vince announced first. And like it's been known for a long time, the short start up doomed the XFL because getting teams situated into stadium deals, marketing, front office and coaching staffs, player evaluation and scouting, game planning, tryouts, camps, etc. It's just too much for one year. So, Vince went with 2.
But, Ebersol's son, egged on by his father and the people he knows, wanted to do it as well. But, you can't be second once Vince announced. SO, they went with one year. Which is a blistering fast time table for a group that doesn't appear to have near the resources that Vince and the new Alpha Entertainment have.
I scoff at the CBS deal, because even the Arena Football league had a CBS deal. How? Because the CBS Sports Network deal is most likely a 50-50 split after production costs. A win-win for the network and guaranteed carriage for the league. But it will pay peanuts. CBS--the one doing the Super Bowl next year--is airing two games. The season opener the week after the Super Bowl, and the title game. This league will be mired in unwatchable, limited access television and rely heavily on internet fueled delivery.
But will they have the coverage needed to get people watching. The primary mover is that you advertise an upcoming game on network programming in advance. With mostly streaming, it's very few that will be watching network programming. CBS--big company--is not going to be shilling for a CBS Sports Network telecast. When's the last time you saw anything on CBS advertise for CBSSN?
Secondly, the talk of the Super Bowl giving the ability to 'lead in' to the AAF is laughable. The timeslots are with millions. Nobody is going to waste money to either put up a spot or for CBS to donate a spot. Sure, there MAY be talk during the week, but would the NFL ever allow them to discuss a potential 'rival' league during their biggest game? Hell and No.
I think they jumped the gun to be first. I think they know it takes more time than this to start a league. I think they know that just because they've 'talked about it behind closed doors' doesn't mean that there's a specific issue getting 8 teams going in less than 11 months now. They know it. We know it. And you can tell by the internet talk of the new AAF compared to the XFL announcement, the AAF announcement has been received about as well as a 2-for-1 deal on used socks. A bit of eyebrow raising and 'it'll never work'. At least the XFL WAS something previously and you can judge from there.
And those saying they had a 'polished' presentation. They basically stole the best ideas people had been thinking up with the XFL and announced them as 'the rules' without any real chance to test them out. Did they run any scrimmages to see how the rules worked? Etc? Doubtful.
I think what we're seeing is two men (one via his son) wanting to be first to get this new league up and running. And both realize the other is in their way. The big difference is that NBC isn't in the way as before. So, just a thought, but maybe this half-ass push through by the AAF to be first is actually an attempt to team up with Vince. They've got his ideas. They've got some inkling of TV and an internet idea setup. But, they don't have the money that Vince can get.
My thought? They go to Vince. They offer him majority control to 'merge' the leagues, start in 2019 instead of 2020 under the XFL banner, but get to run everything. To be the 'football people' to run things that Vince had talked about hiring. The marketing people (Ebersol et al) that he talked about hiring, etc.
Basically, he gets to 'win' the spring football war before it starts, the AAF gets a nine-figure cash infusion to run things just as they already wanted, and Vince gets to see the XFL 'succeed' on the backs of a group who was basically what Vince promised in the first place (hands off, let the football people and smart executives run the show).
The only difference? If the AAF/XFL succeeds, those that jumped to start the AAF stand to gain a fortune as 'partners' in the league rather than just employees.
Here's the thoughts I have on it.
One, Vince and Ebersol have probably talked about what failed in the XFL over these past 17 years. I'm guessing they've done the 'what if' thing again and again in their minds and when they've encountered each other it's probably come up.
Both probably had plans, somewhere, to do it again and make it work. Neither are the type of men that want to be seen as failures. Yes, the 30-for-30 documentary was probably a bite of a primer to see if there really was interest out there for the XFL (or insert-weird-name-here league). And there was. So, both got the ball rolling and took 'idle banter over drinks' to 'let's really do this'.
Vince announced first. And like it's been known for a long time, the short start up doomed the XFL because getting teams situated into stadium deals, marketing, front office and coaching staffs, player evaluation and scouting, game planning, tryouts, camps, etc. It's just too much for one year. So, Vince went with 2.
But, Ebersol's son, egged on by his father and the people he knows, wanted to do it as well. But, you can't be second once Vince announced. SO, they went with one year. Which is a blistering fast time table for a group that doesn't appear to have near the resources that Vince and the new Alpha Entertainment have.
I scoff at the CBS deal, because even the Arena Football league had a CBS deal. How? Because the CBS Sports Network deal is most likely a 50-50 split after production costs. A win-win for the network and guaranteed carriage for the league. But it will pay peanuts. CBS--the one doing the Super Bowl next year--is airing two games. The season opener the week after the Super Bowl, and the title game. This league will be mired in unwatchable, limited access television and rely heavily on internet fueled delivery.
But will they have the coverage needed to get people watching. The primary mover is that you advertise an upcoming game on network programming in advance. With mostly streaming, it's very few that will be watching network programming. CBS--big company--is not going to be shilling for a CBS Sports Network telecast. When's the last time you saw anything on CBS advertise for CBSSN?
Secondly, the talk of the Super Bowl giving the ability to 'lead in' to the AAF is laughable. The timeslots are with millions. Nobody is going to waste money to either put up a spot or for CBS to donate a spot. Sure, there MAY be talk during the week, but would the NFL ever allow them to discuss a potential 'rival' league during their biggest game? Hell and No.
I think they jumped the gun to be first. I think they know it takes more time than this to start a league. I think they know that just because they've 'talked about it behind closed doors' doesn't mean that there's a specific issue getting 8 teams going in less than 11 months now. They know it. We know it. And you can tell by the internet talk of the new AAF compared to the XFL announcement, the AAF announcement has been received about as well as a 2-for-1 deal on used socks. A bit of eyebrow raising and 'it'll never work'. At least the XFL WAS something previously and you can judge from there.
And those saying they had a 'polished' presentation. They basically stole the best ideas people had been thinking up with the XFL and announced them as 'the rules' without any real chance to test them out. Did they run any scrimmages to see how the rules worked? Etc? Doubtful.
I think what we're seeing is two men (one via his son) wanting to be first to get this new league up and running. And both realize the other is in their way. The big difference is that NBC isn't in the way as before. So, just a thought, but maybe this half-ass push through by the AAF to be first is actually an attempt to team up with Vince. They've got his ideas. They've got some inkling of TV and an internet idea setup. But, they don't have the money that Vince can get.
My thought? They go to Vince. They offer him majority control to 'merge' the leagues, start in 2019 instead of 2020 under the XFL banner, but get to run everything. To be the 'football people' to run things that Vince had talked about hiring. The marketing people (Ebersol et al) that he talked about hiring, etc.
Basically, he gets to 'win' the spring football war before it starts, the AAF gets a nine-figure cash infusion to run things just as they already wanted, and Vince gets to see the XFL 'succeed' on the backs of a group who was basically what Vince promised in the first place (hands off, let the football people and smart executives run the show).
The only difference? If the AAF/XFL succeeds, those that jumped to start the AAF stand to gain a fortune as 'partners' in the league rather than just employees.
