USFL-XFL merged league teams, size, season speculation

[4th&long]

I'm already putting down what I think as I just waiting for an announcement like this.

Make your predictions now!

Mine...

The number of teams will be reduced likely 8-10 but no more than 12.

- COMPOSITION/HUB STATUS already posted but: If 8 Teams (60% chance): DALLAS, ST L, HOUSTON (Gamblers or Roughnecks) DC
MICH NJ MEMPHIS BIRMINGHAM
This covers 16.7% of US households. Dallas Birm Memphis hubs with games also played in DC, St L

For 10 teams (40%) USXFL:DALLAS ST L HOUSTON (Gamblers or Roughnecks) DC SA
MICH NJ MEMPHIS BIRMINGHAM PHILLY
This covers 20.05% of US households. Dallas Birm Memphis, DC hubs with games also played in SA, St L
(if Philly & NJ together too costly may stay with NOLA with either NJ or PHILLY gone, that drops 2% of US HH to 18.1%)

WEEKS - I'm going to say 12 weeks (60% chance) but possibly stay at 10 weeks (40%). Depends on what inventory the TV partners want.

I think its more weeks but less teams likely 8 Teams - 12weeks. That's 51 televised games.

- MONTHS- Interesting here FOX wanted Mid-Late Spring for TV, but Winter early Spring better for ratings- not sure. Will be interesting. I could see a 3rd week of March launch - maybe even a split first week launch due to NCAABB March Madness where Week 1 of USXFL is spread over 2 weekends.

Seattle and Orlando have positives but to reduce travel cost and such may get iced 1st. But Seattle does have that PST market and Orlando has that FL FB fan base, so you never know. Also SA may get the nod over Houston due to weather concerns and SA having no NFL/MLB/NHL team - Plus that dome makes weather moot and broadcasting more consistent.

[GDAWG]

I don't think all 8 USFL teams will be a part of this. Now, the Stallions, Showboats and Panthers are locks. The other 5 are questionable and one of them, The Gamblers will not be in Houston as long as the Roughnecks are still going to be there. If the Showboats join, I suspect that the Vipers will not be moving to Nashville, but Phoenix and Portland could still be options.

In the end, I think 6 USFL teams will survive this, with the other two being the Generals and Breakers with the Maulers or Stars going to Ohio. I think it will be one of New Jersey or Philly. I cannot see it being both and it's more of a "I'll believe it when I see it" in regards to both.

[Dome Dome Dome]

I actually don't foresee wholesale changes honestly in terms of a wave of relocation. The only things I'm certain of are the obvious things like the Vegas team being gone and one of the Houston teams being removed. One or two others in close proximity like Philly and NJ might also be culled. I really don't see anyway they operate with 16 teams.

[Sykotyk]

This was my prediction on the other page:

East (hub in Canton)
Ohio (plays in Canton)
Michigan (plays in Detroit)
New Jersey (plays at MetLife)
DC (plays in DC)

Central (hub in Birmingham)
Birmingham
Memphis (plays in Memphis)
St. Louis (plays in STL)
Seattle (plays in Seattle)

South (hub in Arlington)
Arlington (plays in Arlington)
San Antonio (plays in Alamo dome)
Houston (plays at Rice this year)
New Orleans (plays at Tulane)

My logic being, the USFL may have a TV partner built in, but lacks the resources to put in roots into the other 5 cities that aren't playing at home. Meanwhile, XFL can use this as a chance to cut the dead weight of Las Vegas and Orlando.

The problem isn't that these aren't viable markets, it's just you can't keep churning through markets again and again and again with new teams and expect fans to just keep coming back. We saw that with San Antonio. But at least with them in the mix, they'd be travel partners with Arlington and Houston. Throw in New Orleans, and you have road fans that help upsell tickets.

A bigger issue is going to be ticket prices. USFL went for cheap, while XFL made their money off tickets. Big difference between Canton prices just trying to draw anyone, while XFL teams were going for much much more than that.

I think the logic here, in my thoughts

You keep the 6 main XFL markets, and the 4 'host' markets of the USFL (relabeling Canton as Ohio and increasing the Ohio/Michigan rivalry angle). You pick New Jersey over Philly, and bite the bullet and put them at MetLife, which is probably the only place a team can go in that area. Even if the venue is a flop, you need that market. And you need to get rid of the travel-only teams.

But, you take the XFL route of hubbing all the team in Arlington and do it in three places instead. Canton is cheap. Arlington is already hosting. And Birmingham has been a fine, inexpensive host city for USFL for two years. Every team travels out from their 'host' city for their games.

Yes, you're giving up the Florida and California markets. Yes, you're sacrificing either NJ or Philly. Yes, you're getting rid of the PIttsburgh name. But you weren't going into Acrisure anyways and there's no other venue anywhere closer that can host as well as Canton. Not Youngstown. Not Morgantown. Not happening. But at least call them Canton 'SOMETHINGS' or "Ohio SOMETHINGS".

Let's look at the three 'divisions' I created. First, you have DC and NJ as big rivals. You have Ohio and Michigan as big rivals. Those are built in. DC/Philly would work just the same.

The 'South' would be the three Texas teams and New Orleans. Hubbed out of Arlington. Easy driving distance for the San Antonio and Houston games. Easy short trip to New Orleans by plane. Huge potential for road fans from Houston to New Orleans, and the three Texas teams among themselves.

The Central is only odd because of Seattle. Seattle seemed to fit well into the XFL. But, without rocking the boat on relocation and setting up shop in less than four-five months, you're going with pre-existing cities. So, they'll get bundled into the St. Louis, Memphis, and Birmingham hub. Yes, the travel for Seattle home games would suck. But the hub in Birmingham would make road games for Seattle so much easier to Memphis and St. Louis. Both potentially being motor coaches and not flight. Which would greatly cut down expenses.

Anything under 8 hours SHOULD be motor coach than flight. Get there the day before. Home team can do some local promotions. Practice in the evening. Play game the next day, and travel out. Try to line-up home games back to back, and keep a team 'at home' for the week. Also, to increase local publicity. But keeping the hub system going, in general.

The St. Louis/Memphis rivalry would be great. As would the existing Memphis/Birmingham spring football rivalry. And St. Louis-Birmingham should be great, too.

The big issue would be start time. if Fox wants games to start in April, then the XFL teams would have to adjust to a later start. Unless Fox and ESPN/ABC wants to 'handoff' the broadcasts the way NASCAR did for years between Fox and NBC, or Sunday Night Football did years ago between TNT and ESPN.

My thought would be to start the games the weekend before the Super Bowl. With 12 teams, play 4 games the Week before the Super Bowl (assuming the NFL still schedules the single off week). And two games the week of the Super Bowl (played on Saturday as a warm-up for fans). And then full weeks of games going forward from there. Maybe another bye for all 12 teams (spread it over 2 weekends when viewership will be the least, such as March Madness and maybe Mother's Day weekend). Either do Top 4 or Top 6 make the playoffs. Three division champs, and 3 best wildcards. Top two champs get a bye. And an extra week to sell tickets for their games. Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and the championship game at a neutral site pre-selected. In advance.

[Lone Star]

I would really hate for it to just be 8. With how many spring football leagues have come and gone in the past decade or so, eight teams is just blah, and doesn't move the needle any.

Others mentioned the 10 teams established in their markets, -Canton. Leaving Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Seattle, and St. Louis in the West, and Birmingham, DC, Detroit, Michigan, Orlando in the East. This would also help another transitional offseason with less than a year to get essentially a new league off the ground.

Here would be a dream scenario in which 16 teams remain:

USFC NORTH
DC Defenders
New Jersey Generals (Red Bull Arena)
Ohio Maulers (Columbus)
Philadelphia Stars (Talen Energy Stadium)

USFC SOUTH
Birmingham Stallions
Memphis Showboats
Orlando Rage
Tampa Bay Bandits

XFC NORTH
Portland Breakers (via New Orleans)
San Diego Demons (via Vegas)
Seattle Dragons
St. Louis Battlehawks

XFC SOUTH
Dallas Gamblers (via Houston)
Houston Roughnecks
Oklahoma Renegades (via Arlington)
San Antonio Bexars

*The Michigan Panthers are sold to an impatient Randy Ambrosie and the CFL, desperate to get to 10 teams.

[4th&long]

I would really hate for it to just be 8. With how many spring football leagues have come and gone in the past decade or so, eight teams is just blah, and doesn't move the needle any.

Others mentioned the 10 teams established in their markets, -Canton. Leaving Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Seattle, and St. Louis in the West, and Birmingham, DC, Detroit, Michigan, Orlando in the East. This would also help another transitional offseason with less than a year to get essentially a new league off the ground.

Here would be a dream scenario in which 16 teams remain:

USFC NORTH
DC Defenders
New Jersey Generals (Red Bull Arena)
Ohio Maulers (Columbus)
Philadelphia Stars (Talen Energy Stadium)

USFC SOUTH
Birmingham Stallions
Memphis Showboats
Orlando Rage
Tampa Bay Bandits

XFC NORTH
Portland Breakers (via New Orleans)
San Diego Demons (via Vegas)
Seattle Dragons
St. Louis Battlehawks

XFC SOUTH
Dallas Gamblers (via Houston)
Houston Roughnecks
Oklahoma Renegades (via Arlington)
San Antonio Bexars

*The Michigan Panthers are sold to an impatient Randy Ambrosie and the CFL, desperate to get to 10 teams.

I just don't see that many teams - the TV cost of producing games is expensive and they already have 4 games a week on TV. Are they going to put 8 games on a week? I just don't see that in the cards.

10 teams is 5 games a week... thats the same as the NFL (TNF, 2 Sunday day games, SNF, MNF). If ESPN/ESPN2 and ABC get 2 - FOX with FS1 gets 2 and NBC gets1 I can see MAYBE 5. If NBC wants out they will likely do 4.

Could they regionalize games like the NFL? Its possible but costly.

[Sykotyk]

I would really hate for it to just be 8. With how many spring football leagues have come and gone in the past decade or so, eight teams is just blah, and doesn't move the needle any.

Others mentioned the 10 teams established in their markets, -Canton. Leaving Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Seattle, and St. Louis in the West, and Birmingham, DC, Detroit, Michigan, Orlando in the East. This would also help another transitional offseason with less than a year to get essentially a new league off the ground.

Here would be a dream scenario in which 16 teams remain:

USFC NORTH
DC Defenders
New Jersey Generals (Red Bull Arena)
Ohio Maulers (Columbus)
Philadelphia Stars (Talen Energy Stadium)

USFC SOUTH
Birmingham Stallions
Memphis Showboats
Orlando Rage
Tampa Bay Bandits

XFC NORTH
Portland Breakers (via New Orleans)
San Diego Demons (via Vegas)
Seattle Dragons
St. Louis Battlehawks

XFC SOUTH
Dallas Gamblers (via Houston)
Houston Roughnecks
Oklahoma Renegades (via Arlington)
San Antonio Bexars

*The Michigan Panthers are sold to an impatient Randy Ambrosie and the CFL, desperate to get to 10 teams.

I just don't see that many teams - the TV cost of producing games is expensive and they already have 4 games a week on TV. Are they going to put 8 games on a week? I just don't see that in the cards.

10 teams is 5 games a week... thats the same as the NFL (TNF, 2 Sunday day games, SNF, MNF). If ESPN/ESPN2 and ABC get 2 - FOX with FS1 gets 2 and NBC gets1 I can see MAYBE 5. If NBC wants out they will likely do 4.

Could they regionalize games like the NFL? Its possible but costly.

No way there's 16 teams. We'll be lucky if there's more than 8, honestly. I think 12 will be the sweet spot.

[laxtreme56]

I would really hate for it to just be 8. With how many spring football leagues have come and gone in the past decade or so, eight teams is just blah, and doesn't move the needle any.

Others mentioned the 10 teams established in their markets, -Canton. Leaving Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Seattle, and St. Louis in the West, and Birmingham, DC, Detroit, Michigan, Orlando in the East. This would also help another transitional offseason with less than a year to get essentially a new league off the ground.

Here would be a dream scenario in which 16 teams remain:

USFC NORTH
DC Defenders
New Jersey Generals (Red Bull Arena)
Ohio Maulers (Columbus)
Philadelphia Stars (Talen Energy Stadium)

USFC SOUTH
Birmingham Stallions
Memphis Showboats
Orlando Rage
Tampa Bay Bandits

XFC NORTH
Portland Breakers (via New Orleans)
San Diego Demons (via Vegas)
Seattle Dragons
St. Louis Battlehawks

XFC SOUTH
Dallas Gamblers (via Houston)
Houston Roughnecks
Oklahoma Renegades (via Arlington)
San Antonio Bexars

*The Michigan Panthers are sold to an impatient Randy Ambrosie and the CFL, desperate to get to 10 teams.

I just don't see that many teams - the TV cost of producing games is expensive and they already have 4 games a week on TV. Are they going to put 8 games on a week? I just don't see that in the cards.

10 teams is 5 games a week... thats the same as the NFL (TNF, 2 Sunday day games, SNF, MNF). If ESPN/ESPN2 and ABC get 2 - FOX with FS1 gets 2 and NBC gets1 I can see MAYBE 5. If NBC wants out they will likely do 4.

Could they regionalize games like the NFL? Its possible but costly.

I think FX gets the Saturday night game of the week. That was the one network that overperformed compared to expectations. Disney is trying to make it more of a destination channel as well. Pretty sure if Disney is still involved with the league, one FX game per week is mandatory.

[yg1968]

On Discord, there is a guy that says that there will be 12 teams (he says that he has a source). Assuming that this is correct, here are my predictions for the surviving teams from each league:

XFL

North

Seattle
Washington DC
St Louis

South

Houston
San Antonio
Arlington

(Orlando and Vegas are merged with other XFL teams).

USFL

North

New Jersey
Philadelphia
Michigan

South

Birmingham
Memphis
New Orleans

(Houston and Pittsburgh are merged with other USFL teams)

Each team would play teams in their division twice. They would play teams in the other division in their conference once and one of the divisions in the other conference once for a total of 10 games.

[4th&long]

I would really hate for it to just be 8. With how many spring football leagues have come and gone in the past decade or so, eight teams is just blah, and doesn't move the needle any.

Others mentioned the 10 teams established in their markets, -Canton. Leaving Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Seattle, and St. Louis in the West, and Birmingham, DC, Detroit, Michigan, Orlando in the East. This would also help another transitional offseason with less than a year to get essentially a new league off the ground.

Here would be a dream scenario in which 16 teams remain:

USFC NORTH
DC Defenders
New Jersey Generals (Red Bull Arena)
Ohio Maulers (Columbus)
Philadelphia Stars (Talen Energy Stadium)

USFC SOUTH
Birmingham Stallions
Memphis Showboats
Orlando Rage
Tampa Bay Bandits

XFC NORTH
Portland Breakers (via New Orleans)
San Diego Demons (via Vegas)
Seattle Dragons
St. Louis Battlehawks

XFC SOUTH
Dallas Gamblers (via Houston)
Houston Roughnecks
Oklahoma Renegades (via Arlington)
San Antonio Bexars

*The Michigan Panthers are sold to an impatient Randy Ambrosie and the CFL, desperate to get to 10 teams.

I just don't see that many teams - the TV cost of producing games is expensive and they already have 4 games a week on TV. Are they going to put 8 games on a week? I just don't see that in the cards.

10 teams is 5 games a week... thats the same as the NFL (TNF, 2 Sunday day games, SNF, MNF). If ESPN/ESPN2 and ABC get 2 - FOX with FS1 gets 2 and NBC gets1 I can see MAYBE 5. If NBC wants out they will likely do 4.

Could they regionalize games like the NFL? Its possible but costly.

I think FX gets the Saturday night game of the week. That was the one network that overperformed compared to expectations. Disney is trying to make it more of a destination channel as well. Pretty sure if Disney is still involved with the league, one FX game per week is mandatory.

I don't see FX in the mix. With Disney likely only getting 2 games a week, the demands upon ABC/ESPN finding time slots drops in half. The USFL wants max exposure and ESPN/ESPN2 (and maybe an ABC game or two) are likely going to be the price of admission (ie merger).

While FX may have over performed for FX the USXFL needs more viewers, FX can't deliver that. Of course it may depend on the contract with Disney. In a perfect world a games split like:
2 ESPN/ESPN2/ABC, with 2 FOX/FS1 and one NBC as starting point would be ideal for coverage. I would not be totally surprised if the CW gets into the mix (esp if they do not buy ABC).

I hope the leagues milk the merger for what its worth to generate interest esp in the cities they are in now. Make the cities nervous and loyal fans sweat it out so the appreciate it if the team remains and give them more support.