New USFL - what will it look like?

[4th&long]

New USFL - what will it look like?

Budget will be a huge driver for the league. IMO they will target operating cost 1/3 or less of the XFL / AAF. That’s just my gut.

They will likely pick cities many of the XFL is in because that’s where the USFL was mostly for same reasons: TV Nielsen ratings/viewers. Unless the go real budget and pure TSL (I don't think so).

- BUT they will avoid high cost to operate states where possible. I do see NY/NJ a definite

The cites will likely be close enough where some travel can be by bus vs plane to reduce cost

Roster sizes will be closer to TSL’s 38, I could see 41 with a low cost practice squad.

Salaries in yr 1 will likely be (if any and yes they could go TSL style because it also avoids Wkers comp) 2000-2500 for non-kicker/QBs.

Coaching staff will be on small side similar to TSL.
Likely centralized league GM with coaches having some say on drafting from a pool of players.
Likely centralized back office at team sites and possibly even some front office.
Central training camp in low cost state.

Season size will likely be 6-8 games, and I would not go beyond that to avoid running into financial issues.

Key for 2022 is to avoid ALL TALK on FINANCES and COMPLETE season as scheduled to build fan confidence.

Potential Divisions and Teams (based on trade mark filings):

Central - Houston, Dallas, OKC, St Louis
- allows lots of bus travel

Coastal (or East-West) - NY, Philadelphia, TB, LA (or if they avoid calif then AZ).
- bus only NY to/fro Philly

- all that could cut flight travel by 1/3

These cities would allow them coverage of 21.3% of TV homes, vs 22% for XFL and 9.2% for AAF (based on 2021 Nielsen markets)

If they do half to 40% as well as XFL Fox will be more than happy.

Also - Fox's involvement will not preclude another Net from joining in UNLESS Fox really wants to fill out FS1 programming. In fact having Fox on board may encourage another net to jump in.

Thoughts?

[MGB01]

I'll take a stab here with some

First off obviously (thankfully) trying to sign Deuce Vaughn (Herschel Walker, underclassman ineligible) or drafting J.T. Daniels/Sam Howell/Spencer Rattler (Kelly/Young/Marino) is off the table.

Everyone's going to roll their eyes at the "reject" strategy of young players that will make up the league but unless you get a big money influx even going with the "backdraft" (competing for day three picks) strategy could make the league look really dumb.

Opening day, depends on how big the league is from the get-go. Considering FOX's past with NFLE (and present with TSL) it's safe to assume a June championship, and to not really avoid the Olympics (F China for obvious reasons) but to commemorate the debut of USFL1.0 I would have opening weekend on Mar 5-6, exactly 39 years. Of course a championship in mid-June puts you at about a 14-16 week season, not ideal if you're doing a smaller scale structure. Maybe mid-May.

As far as ownership structure, one thing I'd eventually consider is a lot of these disgruntled players who have a problem with how their team (or the NFL in general) like Kaepernick, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, etc, and maybe some former players who are owners in the smaller indoor leagues like Marshawn Lynch a chance to do something low-cost still on the major professional level, since buying even 5% of an NFL team will be impossible, even for them. This is way down the road though but something to plan for. I mention it cause Woods was set to have Tommie Harris and Eric Bassey own a team in the FXFL. If the ownership structure ends up being something akin to ESPN and the Arena League in 2007-08 then that's not out of the question.

As much as I like the callback to the old Coastal Division (which was essentially the 1970-94 NFC West with the Colts instead of the Saints) how do you do that with three East and one West? Especially with travel costs an issue gives me vibes of the NAL trying to fly with one California team and the other six on the East Coast (which predictably was shuttered about two weeks ago).

But whatever the case, Woods definitely put in the work with FOX, so he's definitely going to get way further here than when he put he first put the FXFL out there.

[MGB01]

Let's also reimagine the 1986 season that never happened. FOX supposedly would have been involved despite their at-the-time new nation status, and did reportedly make an offer in the next round of NFL TV negos (1990) before closing the deal in the next one. This was to be the USFL in the fourth season:

Independence Division
Arizona Outlaws
Jacksonville Bulls
Orlando Renegades
Tampa Bay Bandits

Liberty Division
Baltimore Stars
Birmingham Stallions
Memphis Showboats
New Jersey Generals

Perhaps instead of East-West we roll with that. There's some potential, but some problems

--NY will have to be good, no two ways around it. Or at least has to be a thing, it's why we had Jesse vs Rusty. It's why XFL2.0 was perceived to be down because the Guardians had problems.

--Birmingham will be a strong candidate to be a team at Protective Stadium.

--Orlando is always going to be there, and here you probably go San Antonio instead of Memphis

Other than that I give the nod to Seattle over the Bay Area (is there any place left?), then use your connections to fill in the last three:

Dallas (maybe work up something with Jerry Jones and give SA in in-state rival)
LA (Seattle west rival, although they stumbled out of the gate in XFL2.0 so NY rules apply),
Fill it out with PHI or whoever else from an NFC/MLS market (Michigan Panthers at Ford Field?)

Yes you do want to watch costs, but you absolutely DON'T want to merely rebrand TSL. TSL's drawing the viewers they do because people know what it is and just go from there. But taking the step up to actual league status, as I've said for a couple months, especially with something that still has the name value and attachment as the USFL, is going to be just that, step up.

[4th&long]

I'll take a stab here with some

First off obviously (thankfully) trying to sign Deuce Vaughn (Herschel Walker, underclassman ineligible) or drafting J.T. Daniels/Sam Howell/Spencer Rattler (Kelly/Young/Marino) is off the table.

Everyone's going to roll their eyes at the "reject" strategy of young players that will make up the league but unless you get a big money influx even going with the "backdraft" (competing for day three picks) strategy could make the league look really dumb.

Opening day, depends on how big the league is from the get-go. Considering FOX's past with NFLE (and present with TSL) it's safe to assume a June championship, and to not really avoid the Olympics (F China for obvious reasons) but to commemorate the debut of USFL1.0 I would have opening weekend on Mar 5-6, exactly 39 years. Of course a championship in mid-June puts you at about a 14-16 week season, not ideal if you're doing a smaller scale structure. Maybe mid-May.

As far as ownership structure, one thing I'd eventually consider is a lot of these disgruntled players who have a problem with how their team (or the NFL in general) like Kaepernick, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, etc, and maybe some former players who are owners in the smaller indoor leagues like Marshawn Lynch a chance to do something low-cost still on the major professional level, since buying even 5% of an NFL team will be impossible, even for them. This is way down the road though but something to plan for. I mention it cause Woods was set to have Tommie Harris and Eric Bassey own a team in the FXFL. If the ownership structure ends up being something akin to ESPN and the Arena League in 2007-08 then that's not out of the question.

As much as I like the callback to the old Coastal Division (which was essentially the 1970-94 NFC West with the Colts instead of the Saints) how do you do that with three East and one West? Especially with travel costs an issue gives me vibes of the NAL trying to fly with one California team and the other six on the East Coast (which predictably was shuttered about two weeks ago).

But whatever the case, Woods definitely put in the work with FOX, so he's definitely going to get way further here than when he put he first put the FXFL out there.

I'll put my 2cents in on divisions first... OKC can be a completely Bus team when playing STL, Houston, Dallas home and away, that's 6 games, Dallas/Houston playing each other as well. And NY/Philly. That's 10 games. I don't see the league playing more than 10 games but more likely (6)7-8 in 2012. so if its roughly 1/3. That's significant savings. TB and LA will have to travel regardless of what division they are in.

I don't think they'll have any or few player investors, just muddle the waters on PR. Perhaps some older ex-players.

As far as timing of the season, that depends on Fox's schedule and other sports. We don't know it they are going 2 games on Fox/2FS1 or more like TSL. We don't even know if another broadcaster doesn't step up. But You may be right.

Relisten to Woods 4/25/21 interview on "the_Markcast" its long and pre USFL announcement but there's hints and some guidance. USFL is further along than we thought. Also Mike M has said he has heard of other investors.

[GDAWG]

If I am the USFL, I would structure player contracts to allow continuity on the rosters of teams for 2 or 3 years, but also allow for players to pursue NFL options if they so chose to or to allow them to void the remainder of their contracts if they sign with an NFL team. Same applies to coaches. If an assistant coach on a USFL team is hired onto an NFL team, the USFL should not block that coach.

[Gopher123]

I’m definitely on board with your expected league budget. Baby steps is the wording that was used when describing the USFL launch and expected growth, which I think is very fitting. Again, we don’t know who this Brian Woods investment group is yet or how much they are willing to spend. I’m going to be very interested in seeing some of the first moves this league makes when it comes to personnel hirings. That should give an indication how big they are wanting to go to start with.

I really hope the players are at least paid something for their efforts. How much the league decides to pay will be a big factor on talent. I would suspect many prospects that are in the TSL will be bumped up if they don’t find NFL opportunities, including coaches. I’m guessing talent pool somewhere between current TSL and AAF to begin with.



I also wouldn’t be surprised if they pass up putting a team in California for 2022. Clearly LA has struggled to support teams in the past and from looking at the Express average attendance numbers from ‘83-‘85 they were no different. I would expect San Diego, with their new stadium coming, will be attractive in 2023 to both the USFL and XFL. One city no one has mentioned, that I think should be considered is Denver. It would be cool there in February but if we are talking March or April then that shouldn’t be a concern. They always support their Broncos and had strong attendance the first 2 years of the USFL. Terrible attendance the last season but it sounds like the team was very frustrating to fans in terms of how it was run. I don’t think I would hold that against a new team.

[4th&long]

Let's also reimagine the 1986 season that never happened. FOX supposedly would have been involved despite their at-the-time new nation status, and did reportedly make an offer in the next round of NFL TV negos (1990) before closing the deal in the next one. This was to be the USFL in the fourth season:

Independence Division
Arizona Outlaws
Jacksonville Bulls
Orlando Renegades
Tampa Bay Bandits

Liberty Division
Baltimore Stars
Birmingham Stallions
Memphis Showboats
New Jersey Generals

Perhaps instead of East-West we roll with that. There's some potential, but some problems

--NY will have to be good, no two ways around it. Or at least has to be a thing, it's why we had Jesse vs Rusty. It's why XFL2.0 was perceived to be down because the Guardians had problems.

--Birmingham will be a strong candidate to be a team at Protective Stadium.

--Orlando is always going to be there, and here you probably go San Antonio instead of Memphis

Other than that I give the nod to Seattle over the Bay Area (is there any place left?), then use your connections to fill in the last three:

Dallas (maybe work up something with Jerry Jones and give SA in in-state rival)
LA (Seattle west rival, although they stumbled out of the gate in XFL2.0 so NY rules apply),
Fill it out with PHI or whoever else from an NFC/MLS market (Michigan Panthers at Ford Field?)

Yes you do want to watch costs, but you absolutely DON'T want to merely rebrand TSL. TSL's drawing the viewers they do because people know what it is and just go from there. But taking the step up to actual league status, as I've said for a couple months, especially with something that still has the name value and attachment as the USFL, is going to be just that, step up.

While I agree they need to spend more I totally disagree on why people may not watch it. They don't watch it #1 because they don't know about it and #2 it has no local city support.

You called the dates right and that TSL was a holding spot, but I think you were envisioning XFL. When it comes to USFL don't be surprised if its an upmarketed TSL- its possible. If they pay 2000-2500 a week for 6-8 games +playoffs (non-QB/kickers) they will get players. The TSL proved that.

[Tank55]

I also wouldn’t be surprised if they pass up putting a team in California for 2022.

Agreed, especially because we saw how burdensome the regulatory environment proved for the AAF and XFL. Although maybe worker compensation laws don't apply to unpaid labor.

[4th&long]

I also wouldn’t be surprised if they pass up putting a team in California for 2022.

Agreed, especially because we saw how burdensome the regulatory environment proved for the AAF and XFL. Although maybe worker compensation laws don't apply to unpaid labor.

They don't tank. They aren't labor - more like a customer. That's why he's doing it this way, the WC Ins is a bigger issue than the salaries themselves.

And I agree, USFL MAY pass on California, could see AZ instead. do they have the Portland breakers name TM? if so they may go there... NO MLB, NHL, NFL... plus they have a soccer stadium