Do you see optimism, reading into it that the league is prepared to grow beyond its eight teams due to the prosperity and success of UFL season one, and the dedication and long-term vision of its ownership group?
Or do you see pessimism, a league that isn’t ready to run because it hasn’t mastered crawling or walking yet, making this announcement as a desperate attempt to lure investors, sponsors, and viewers to a league that may not be around this time next year?
The optimistic fans will point to this expansion news to say, “See! They wouldn’t be doing this if they didn’t have the funds and confidence the UFL will be around for the long haul!”
The pessimist will point to it and say, “See! The league is trying to expand too quickly and will collapse in on itself if this comes to fruition,” or, “This is just a ploy to accelerate their attempts to lure money marks into investing into the product!”
Those looking through rose-colored glasses will note that for the league to grow, they have to be in more markets and touch more of the country, which will in turn increase TV ratings and make more money for the league in attendance, advertising and other revenue streams.
If you’re predisposed to negativity, you’ll note that the press release doesn’t list any time frame for expansion, leaving it open-ended and therefore a lot easier to scrap for any number of reasons.
As of today, there is no right or wrong answer: It’s Schrodinger’s UFL, a league that is simultaneously preparing for both the immediate and sustained future while also constantly at death’s door. It’s the yearly ritual for the spring football fan, never knowing if tomorrow is the day you’ll wake up to the league shutting its doors – or in this case, announcing plans to expand.
Taking this announcement at face value for a few moments, there appear to be a couple of items the league is getting right. For example, it’s a wise move to encourage cities to come to them and to pitch themselves for a team in the UFL, as the release indicates. The XFL of 2023 gave itself a lot of unnecessary grief by going to cities that were personal to ownership but bombed by almost any metric (Orlando) or that was the pet project of an owner but came up empty in search of a suitable stadium (Las Vegas). Prospective markets should be vetted thoroughly by this group before they take the next step.
That next step could be adding two franchises in 2026. If that’s the timeline the league is working from, this is the right moment to announce expansion plans. This gives several months to negotiate with interested cities; an announcement of the two new markets could be made at some point during the UFL season (perhaps even hyped up to be a halftime announcement in the playoffs), with major hires and team identities to be revealed early in the off-season. If that timeline holds true, there won’t be a feeling of last-minute rushing to get things done, as has been the case for so long in this space.
The UFL has been able to cut financial corners in a number of different areas, from the Arlington hub to making coaches seasonal employees, to sending both teams on the same charter jet to a game, to many others. The addition of two more teams will increase costs exponentially. It would not be surprising to see ownership hold off on any further expansion news until well into the upcoming season so as to make sure they’re prepared financially to return for a third and potentially beyond.
While expansion is constantly on the minds of a certain sector of spring football fans, and now has seemingly been willed into reality, I’ve been loath to dive into the topic. At the time, it was all theoretical: IF the UFL/XFL/USFL was to expand, where might they go? Well, with Monday’s announcement, it’s no longer theoretical. Then again, an announcement to begin the expansion process is different from actually expanding. The press release will either be the first step in that process, or the only step; your belief in either depends upon how you view the situation.
1 thought on “COLUMN: Desperation or Prosperity? UFL expansion is in the eye of the beholder”
Interesting article. I wasn’t looking at expansion negatively, but I see your point. We will see which one it is, but this is what I thought. The UFL has been frugal in their spending. In doing so, payroll is reasonable and ticket prices are fairly reasonable, yet the gameplay and TV programming are excellent. I have always said, if you build it, they will come. They have built it, but they have only built it for a 1/3 to 1/2 the country. This is where expansion comes in. The league’s frugal ways have allowed it to be sustainable. Even as it loses money, it has kept those loses in check. The reason I don’t think expenses would grow exponentially is because they already have the hub for players to stay in during the season and those teams would also hub there. I have heard talk about it being too expensive to have a team in Seattle. I don’t see that at all with both teams on the same flight. Remember all teams fly every week from a central spot. It is not like they are flying from Seattle to DC. This along with a $3,000,000 payroll for the whole team including camp and regular season keep costs regulated. Could the league charge a fee to hub a new team? They can, but I am hoping it won’t be such a large cost at this time, but maybe build it in to grow in the future as revenues grow. The owners have the additional costs as they would be paying for the fee for the marketplace, stadium rental and local operations. In the past to keep costs down and limit losses, they have stayed away from those larger cities. Expansion with team owners is a way to get team into those markets, driving up the TV ratings while the team owners pay the costs associated with those markets. This does not mean the league won’t own teams in the future. I truly think they will, but at this time the league has been barely treading water for a long time and it is getting tired. It needs a couple of owners to expand to places that will help the league and TV ratings and attendance grow. Looking at 6,000 and 8,000 tickets sold is depressing. To sprinkle in a few places with 20,000-30,000 fans will make those other cities feel like they have something real too and lead them to increase. The product is a good product. Based on numbers received from this website the league did a little over 500,000 fans this year. I expect them to do 600,000 without expansion. This includes a dip from St.Louis, with Memphis only averaging 9,000 fans per game. I expect boosts of 3,000 per game in Birmingham and Houston and 4,000 in San Antonio, Arlington and Michigan. DC is the toughest to call. It seems to me when DC puts a real team on the field the stands are full. As they started to show incompetence the fans stayed away in droves. To me, Reggie Barlow and Gregg Williams need to make sure they come to play each week and have to stay away from stupid penalties and poor run defense. If they give up back to back runs of 8+ yards, the fans will moan. Keep it up and they will stay home next week. It’s supposed to be football. If doesn’t look like football. It’s Spring. They will find something else to do. You would think the coaches know that, instead of just saying…..”eventually we are going to get them in a passing down, then we got ’em.” If you are already losing 27-10 what good does that do…..and the fans know it. You should too?
Interesting article. I wasn’t looking at expansion negatively, but I see your point. We will see which one it is, but this is what I thought. The UFL has been frugal in their spending. In doing so, payroll is reasonable and ticket prices are fairly reasonable, yet the gameplay and TV programming are excellent. I have always said, if you build it, they will come. They have built it, but they have only built it for a 1/3 to 1/2 the country. This is where expansion comes in. The league’s frugal ways have allowed it to be sustainable. Even as it loses money, it has kept those loses in check. The reason I don’t think expenses would grow exponentially is because they already have the hub for players to stay in during the season and those teams would also hub there. I have heard talk about it being too expensive to have a team in Seattle. I don’t see that at all with both teams on the same flight. Remember all teams fly every week from a central spot. It is not like they are flying from Seattle to DC. This along with a $3,000,000 payroll for the whole team including camp and regular season keep costs regulated. Could the league charge a fee to hub a new team? They can, but I am hoping it won’t be such a large cost at this time, but maybe build it in to grow in the future as revenues grow. The owners have the additional costs as they would be paying for the fee for the marketplace, stadium rental and local operations. In the past to keep costs down and limit losses, they have stayed away from those larger cities. Expansion with team owners is a way to get team into those markets, driving up the TV ratings while the team owners pay the costs associated with those markets. This does not mean the league won’t own teams in the future. I truly think they will, but at this time the league has been barely treading water for a long time and it is getting tired. It needs a couple of owners to expand to places that will help the league and TV ratings and attendance grow. Looking at 6,000 and 8,000 tickets sold is depressing. To sprinkle in a few places with 20,000-30,000 fans will make those other cities feel like they have something real too and lead them to increase. The product is a good product. Based on numbers received from this website the league did a little over 500,000 fans this year. I expect them to do 600,000 without expansion. This includes a dip from St.Louis, with Memphis only averaging 9,000 fans per game. I expect boosts of 3,000 per game in Birmingham and Houston and 4,000 in San Antonio, Arlington and Michigan. DC is the toughest to call. It seems to me when DC puts a real team on the field the stands are full. As they started to show incompetence the fans stayed away in droves. To me, Reggie Barlow and Gregg Williams need to make sure they come to play each week and have to stay away from stupid penalties and poor run defense. If they give up back to back runs of 8+ yards, the fans will moan. Keep it up and they will stay home next week. It’s supposed to be football. If doesn’t look like football. It’s Spring. They will find something else to do. You would think the coaches know that, instead of just saying…..”eventually we are going to get them in a passing down, then we got ’em.” If you are already losing 27-10 what good does that do…..and the fans know it. You should too?